Marius Schober

Embracing the Mysteries, Unveiling the Realities

A polymathic exploration of innovation, philosophy, and the mystical.

  • Fertility Rates and Real Estate

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    1 min read

    Global fertility rates are plummeting. Countries like the U.S. (1.64), China, Japan, and Spain (all below 1.2) face drastic population reductions – up to 80% over three generations. South Korea’s rate of 0.7 could trigger a 96% decline. This is not only a demographic issue but also an economic time bomb.

    For real estate, fewer people means fewer homes needed. An aging population will favor downsizing and specialized housing, while larger family homes sit vacant. Urban areas may initially absorb the shock, but even cities will face declining demand. Property values and rental incomes will inevitably fall, hurting investments and slowing construction. Immigrant-driven growth, which propped up Europe’s housing markets for decades, is no longer a reliable cushion as the fertility rate plunges across the globe and across ethnicities.

    As demand shifts, so will the nature of housing. Assisted living, multi-generational homes, and adaptive reuse projects will dominate, while sprawling suburban developments could become ghost towns. Governments may attempt to incentivize higher birth rates or attract foreign buyers, but the long-term trajectory points toward overcapacity and falling values.

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  • “Researched Climate Models”

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    2 min read

    So-called “researched climate models” are nothing more than digital crystal balls, fed by human arrogance and mere morsels of data. These models are as “researched” as the deep ocean – we’ve barely scratched the surface.

    The climate system is a labyrinth of countless variables and feedback loops:

    1. Solar cycles and variations in solar output
    2. Earth’s orbital changes (Milkankovitch cycles)
    3. Galactic cosmic rays influencing cloud formation
    4. Plate tectonics altering ocean currents and atmospheric circulation
    5. Volcanic activity injecting aerosols and gases
    6. Geomagnetic field fluctuations affecting atmospheric protection
    7. Deep ocean currents and heat distribution
    8. Ocean acidification
    9. Sea ice dynamics and albedo effects
    10. Greenhouse cas concentrations (CO₂, methane, water vapor)
    11. Aerosole distributions from natural and anthropogenic sources
    12. Ozone layer variations
    13. Forest cover changes affecting carbon sinks
    14. Soil microbiome dynamics influencing greenhouse gas emissions
    15. Phytoplankton populations and ocean sequestration
    16. Permafrost thawing releasing stored greenhouse gases
    17. Ice sheet stability and sea level changes
    18. Glacial retreat altering local climates
    19. Human greenhouse gas emissions from industry and agriculture
    20. Land use changes affecting albedo and local climates
    21. Geoengineering attempts (e.g. cloud seeding, stratospheric aerosol injection, etc.)
    22. Potential quantum influences on chemical reactions in the atmosphere
    23. Quantum entanglement in biological systems
    24. Schumann resonances and their potential climate impacts
    25. Ionospheric changes affecting atmospheric electricity
    26. Meteor impacts and dust influx
    27. Potential dark matter interactions with Earth’s core

    The climate system is a multi-dimensional, multi-scale phenomenon where microscopic quantum effects may cascade into global changes and cosmic events can trigger earthly responses. Our current models, focused primarily on greenhouse gases and simple feedback loops, are akin to trying to predict the outcome of a symphony by looking only at the trombone section.

    The sheer number of variables and their non-linear interactions make accurate long-term prediction an impossible task.

    MAYBE quantum computing and superintelligent AI might someday crack the climate code. But today’s models? They’re monuments to our stupendous arrogance. We’re using abacuses to calculate infinity, patting ourselves on the back for our “accuracy.” It’s not just misguided—it’s dangerously delusional.

    Our current understanding is but a drop in the ocean of what there is to know. Instead of boasting about “researched climate models,” we should humbly speak of “preliminary climate hypotheses.”

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  • China’s Economy

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    1 min read

    At the IAA TRANSPORTATION, the world’s leading trade fair for mobility, transport, and logistics, I talked to a Chinese salesman from Shandong province. He said since COVID-19, the Chinese economy is worsening every day, describing the Chinese economy and their order situation as “poorly”. He was working on a commission basis for an industrial robotics company. His base salary – he said – is only covering his “insurances”, nothing more. When a sales person like this talks, you listen. His livelihood depends on actual transactions, not theoretical models. The overall quiet at most supplier booths at the exhibition only amplified his concerns.

    Are we prepared for a future where the workshop of the world falls silent?

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  • The Income-Wealth-Paradox

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    1 min read

    Income and wealth often dance to different tunes.

    While a high income is seductive and provides comfort, it rarely leads to true wealth.

    The secret lies in equity–ownership that multiplies value over time. Equity in businesses or even ideas can generate generational wealth.

    It is not about how much you earn, but what you own that appreciates.

    To build real wealth, shift focus from earning more to owning more.

    Equity is the silent engine of wealth creation.

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  • Trip to HTC Eindhoven

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    2 min read

    Yesterday, at 7AM I was drinking an Espresso in the city center of Düsseldorf. Only a 1,5 hour drive later I arrived at the High Tech Campus (HTC) in Eindoven, the home of PHILIPS, Signify, and dozens of other technology companies and startups.

    This 90 minute drive felt like time traveling from the past into the present. The HTC greeted me with an infrastructure that reminded me of the Google Campus in Mountain View, California. The entire campus is designed car-free. Well not literally, because it has a direct access to the high way and offers generous free parking spaces in green car parks. From there you walk to your office or you can use bike sharing.

    It is surrounded by areas of water, which is typical for the Netherlands. On the clean, car-free roads, you can see self-driving delivery robots, you overhear at least as many English conversations as you can overhear Dutch conversations. An international business atmosphere you don’t have – for example – in Düsseldorf.

    The HTC in Eindhoven is not the future. The campus is already 25 years old. It is a reminder for city- and business park planners of how the present should look like. Overall, I feel that in the Netherlands you get a much better infrastructure for a comparable amount of taxes. The world can definetly learn from the Dutch.

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  • iSame

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    1 min read

    Apple released the iPhone 16. It’s just another iPhone. And that makes Apple the most risk-averse technology company in the world. Apple focusses on refinement over revolution. It prioritizes stability and incremental improvements. This strategy minimizes risk but stifles innovation. Can Apple continue to lead without daring to disrupt?

    Today, the Apple surely didn’t fall far from the tree-dition.

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  • Fueling Your Sales Engine

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    3 min read

    Over the years, I’ve had numerous conversations with entrepreneurs, inventors, and companies seeking sales support (primarily in the German market). These discussions have revolved around various forms of collaboration, from business partnerships and freelance arrangements to full-time employment.

    Through these interactions, I’ve noticed a common pitfall: a reluctance to offer competitive compensation. Companies often fail to recognize that when it comes to attracting top-performing salespeople, compensation is the most critical factor. Aligning sales success directly with compensation is essential, as it directly impacts your cash flow. Failing to do so will likely result in attracting mediocre talent at best.

    Imagine a garden where you plant seeds but refuse to water them adequately. Just as a plant needs sufficient water to grow and flourish, a salesperson needs proper compensation to stay motivated and deliver outstanding results. If you deprive your sales team of the nourishment they need in the form of competitive pay and incentives, you’ll end up with a garden full of wilted, underperforming plants. On the other hand, by generously watering your garden and providing the right nutrients, you create an environment where your sales team can thrive, ultimately yielding a bountiful harvest for your company.

    Aim for a compensation structure that rewards ambition and drive: uncapped, sky-high commissions that motivate your sales team to reach for the stars. Let’s say you offer a generous 25% commission on every deal closed. For instance, if a sales person closes $800,000 worth of deals in one year, they would earn $200,000 in commission alone. At first glance, it might seem like a hefty expense for your company. However, consider the alternative: a meager 5% commission. They will close fewer deals, let’s say $500,000, and be left with $25,000. That leaves your sales team feeling undervalued and unmotivated.

    In this scenario, paying a higher commission is like investing in premium fuel for a high-performance engine. Sure, it costs more upfront, but it propels your sales machine to operate at its full potential, closing deals left and right. On the other hand, opting for a cheaper, low-octane fuel might save you a few pennies per gallon, but it will leave your engine sputtering and struggling to reach its destination.

    Moreover, when you prioritize top-line revenue and free cash flow, you create a virtuous cycle of growth. The more deals your motivated sales team closes, the more resources you have to reinvest in your business, fueling further expansion. Focusing on margin optimization early on is like trying to fill a leaky bucket – no matter how efficiently you pour water in, it will keep draining away. Instead, concentrate on increasing the size of your bucket (i.e., your revenue) first, and worry about patching the leaks (i.e., optimizing margins) later.

    Finally, don’t be afraid to increase your prices to accommodate some of the cost of compensating your top performers. Just as a rising tide lifts all boats, a small price increase across the board can create the budget necessary to attract and retain the best sales talent in the industry. Your customers will hardly notice the difference, but your sales team will be invigorated by the opportunity to earn what they’re truly worth. In the end, everyone wins: your company, your sales team, and your customers who benefit from a superior product or service backed by a passionate, motivated sales force.

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  • The True Value of a Passport

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    3 min read

    In recent years, the trend of collecting passports has gained popularity. Countries like St. Kitts and Nevis, Malta, Cyprus, or Antigua and Barbuda offer easy access to citizenship through investments or relocation. But what is the real worth of these passports?

    The most crucial factor, I believe, is the diplomatic resources and leverage a country possesses and employs for its citizens. Imagine you are a sovereign individual, traveling the world, and suddenly, without any legal justification, a country arrests you. It could be due to a social media post or mere corruption.

    In such a scenario, the critical questions are: Will your country of citizenship care about your arrest? Do they have the diplomatic resources to assist you? And do they possess the necessary leverage to intervene on your behalf? For countries like St. Kitts and Nevis, Malta, or Antigua and Barbuda, the answer to all three questions is likely no.

    The current cases of Pavel Durov and Roger Ver serve as a revealing case studies. Durov holds multiple citizenships, including those from Saint Kitts and Nevis, the United Arab Emirates, and Russia. As we can observe, St. Kitts and Nevis have shown no concern, lack the ability to act, and have zero leverage to help him. The UAE, despite withdrawing contracts worth billions of Euros from France, seems to lack sufficient leverage to assist him. Russia, Durov’s country of birth, has demonstrated concern and possesses the diplomatic pressure and leverage to aid him, although the extent to which they will intervene remains uncertain due to Durov’s political alienation from the Kremlin.

    The crux of my argument is this: if you value your freedom, be cautious about which citizenships you acquire or relinquish. Consider whether the country will care, possess the diplomatic capability to assist you internationally, and have the necessary leverage to do so.

    Passports from global powers like the United States, Russia, and China rank high on the list, as these nations have the requisite leverage on the global political landscape to not only care but also take action to protect their citizens from unjust situations.

    Other countries whose citizenship holds significant diplomatic value include neutral nations with effective global diplomatic presence, such as Switzerland, Singapore, Norway, Japan, and Hong Kong, and potentially – the case of Pavel Durov will tell – the UAE.

    A decade ago, I would have included countries like Germany, the United Kingdom, Sweden, and the Netherlands in this list. However, these countries’ credibility on the global stage is diminishing with each passing day.

    While having multiple citizenships is advantageous, ensure that you hold at least one from a country with the interest, capability, and leverage to provide genuine diplomatic assistance when needed.

    A citizenship without diplomatic resources is merely a piece of paper or a residence permit at best.

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  • Provisions-Vertrieb

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    2 min read

    In den Vereinigten Staaten ist der Vertrieb nicht nur ein Beruf, sondern eine Lebensphilosophie. Leistung wird dort mit fürstlichen Gehältern belohnt – Spitzenverkäufer erreichen nicht selten Jahreseinkommen jenseits der 250.000-Dollar-Marke. In Deutschland zeichnet sich ein kontrastreiches Bild ab. Hier dominiert eine Mentalität, die tief in der kollektiven Psyche verwurzelt ist: das Streben nach Sicherheit.

    Diese kulturelle Prägung spiegelt sich deutlich in der Vergütungsstruktur wider. Während in den USA Provisionen den Löwenanteil des Einkommens ausmachen, setzen deutsche Unternehmen vorwiegend auf fixe Gehälter mit geringen und häufig gedeckelten Provisionen. Das Ergebnis: Selbst erfolgshungrige Verkäufer in Deutschland finden sich oft mit Jahresgehältern konfrontiert, die die 100.000-Euro-Schwelle kaum überschreiten – ungeachtet wohlklingender Titel wie “Sales Executive” oder “Business Development Manager”.

    Doch auch in Deutschland gibt es sie: zielstrebige, talentierte und erfolgshungrige Verkäufer. Das eigentliche Problem liegt im Matching. Auf gängigen Jobportalen treffen Top-Verkäufer auf mittelmäßige Stellen, die ihren Ambitionen und Fähigkeiten nicht gerecht werden.

    Hier liegt eine vielversprechende Marktlücke für den deutschen Markt: eine Plattform, die ausschließlich ungedeckelte, rein erfolgsbasierte Vertriebsjobs anbietet. In den USA existieren bereits mehrere solcher Plattformen, allen voran CommissionCrowd.

    Das Konzept ist denkbar einfach: Unternehmen schreiben Aufträge/Jobs für hochpreisige Produkte oder Dienstleistungen im hohen fünf- bis siebenstelligen Bereich aus. Top-Verkäufer können sich auf diese Jobs bewerben, erhalten eine Schulung, schließen über die Plattform einen Handelsvertretervertrag ab und können dann zu 100% erfolgsbasiert verkaufen.

    Eine solche Plattform hätte das Potenzial, die Vertriebslandschaft in Deutschland nachhaltig zu verändern. Sie würde nicht nur Top-Talenten die Möglichkeit bieten, ihr volles Potenzial auszuschöpfen, sondern auch Unternehmen dabei helfen, ihre Umsätze zu steigern. Meines Erachtens ist an der Zeit, dass Deutschland den Vertrieb neu denkt und mutigen Verkäufern die Chance gibt, nach den Sternen zu greifen.

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  • Decentralized One-To-Many Communication

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    5 min read

    Telegram and Twitter/X have become the two leading platforms for communication and information sharing. However, as the arrest of Pavel Durov shows, these platforms come with inherent limitations that hinder true freedom of expression and user privacy.

    First, I believe that what has led to the prosecution and arrest of Pavel Durov was much less about the one-to-one or group messaging features of Telegram. The discussion on the strength and utility of Telegram’s proprietary end-to-end encryption is distracting from what I think made Telegram and Pavel Durov a target of governments: censorship- and algorithm-free one-to-many communication channels.

    Telegram established itself as a crucial source for uncensored and real-time information during any critical world event; during the Covid-19 pandemic, the Ukraine war, and now Israel-Palestine.

    Twitter has always been the preferred platform for one-to-many communication. And as X, under new ownership, free speech has improved drastically. Yet, X still faces issues of algorithmic bias and manipulation of public discourse.

    In contrast to X and other social networks, Pavel Durov choose a non-algorithmic approach without a timeline for Telegram. Instead, users follow channels where the content is shown – like in a chat – in a chronological form without any censorship.

    However, Telegram still relies on centralized servers for message storage and delivery. This centralization makes the platform vulnerable to political attacks, government pressures, potential censorship, shutdowns, and data breaches.

    On the other hand, X, despite its wide reach and real-time nature, is plagued by its algorithmic nature and lack of privacy. For most, X’s algorithm dictate what content users see, often creating echo chambers and limiting exposure to diverse perspectives. Its centralized structure allows for arbitrary changes in policies and features, at the expense of user experience and privacy. Additionally, X’s data collection practices for targeting advertising and training the LLM Grok s concerning from a user privacy perspective.

    Most crucially, the centralized nature of these platforms requires users to trust these platforms not censor content, suspend accounts, and enforce arbitrary rules. It also gives governments through political pressure – as we experience with the arrest of Pavel Durov – to enforce censorship or even a shut-down of the service. The centralized nature also means users have little control over their own data and no ownership of their social graphs.

    While decentralized social networks like Farcaster or Bluesky have paved the way for decentralized social networking, they still largely mimic traditional social media structures with feeds and follower systems. Telegram’s channels are a case study for effective one-to-many communication, yet they are centralized and vulnerable to government pressure and censorship.

    There is a need for a truly decentralized, censorship-resistant platform focused solely on one-to-many communication without the distractions of feeds, likes, and algorithms.

    How could such a decentralized communication network look like?

    A Decentralized, Algorithm-Free Communication Platform

    I’m envisioning a platform that (like Telegram) moves away from the algorithmic and chronological feeds – let’s call it Beacon for now.

    At the heart of Beacon is a hybrid architecture that combines the strengths of blockchain technology with an advanced Distributed Hash Table (DHT) system. The combination could address the scalability issues that plague pure blockchain solutions, while maintaining the integrity and immutability that blockchain provides. The lightweight blockchain layer would handle user authentication, channel metadata, and access control, while the advanced DHT layer would manage content storage and distribution.

    The most important feature of Beacon is the focus on pure one-to-many communication. Users can reach their audience directly, without intermediaries or algorithmic interference. Instead of relying on feeds or algorithms to surface content, Beacon would employ a push-based system where users receive direct notifications from the channels they follow, called “Beacons”.

    To ensure that content remains accessible indefinitely, users contribute local or self-hosted storage to the DHT system and/or purchase storage on a decentralized blockchain. Users automatically host not only their own posts but also all posts they interact with – these are the posts they like – and all Beacons they subscribe to and receive. This way, even if the original creator goes offline, the content would persist through the collective storage of its followers. The more followers a user has, the more decentralized and uncensorable the posts become.

    Furthermore, think of adaptive content replication using AI to predict popularity and access patterns, zero-knowledge subscriptions for anonymous yet personalized content delivery, and quantum-resistant cryptography to future-proof the platform against emerging threats to become an integral part of Beacon.

    From a user perspective, I believe Beacon should – just like Telegram – offer an intuitive interface that abstracts away the underlying complexity of the decentralized system. Users could easily create and manage multiple Beacons, set up tiered access levels, and incorporate interactive elements like polls, voice messages, and live-streaming. The goal would be to make decentralized communication accessible and appealing to the masses.

    Beacon, or a platform like it, could offer a truly open, efficient, and user-controlled communication ecosystem that reshapes how communities, creators, and organizations interact in the digital age.

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