BCG says that 83% of firms prioritize innovation, but only 3% feel able to execute.
I ask: what’s the bigger flaw: overestimating corporate AI or underinvesting in people?
Probably both.
I see a trend where AI is seen as the cure-all.
Instead of investing in visionary and creative leaders plus the engineers to execute, companies invest in AI gimmicks whose ROI is (for now) mostly in efficiency – not real innovation.
Everyone – at this point – basically pretends it will lead to proprietary innovation.
At the same time, the innovation companies end up running after, are the innovations that AI tells them to – and because AI is commoditizing logic, it simultaneously commoditizes innovation.
Congratulations: You end up in a red ocean instead of blue ocean.
Therefore, innovation becomes competition, and is not innovation anymore.
The biggest mistake companies can make today is investing all in AI and not investing in the human genius of their workforce: visionary leadership, their collective intuitive intelligence, Human-AI-Symbiosis
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Corporate AI vs. Visionary People
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Decentralization versus Authoritarianism
Erdoğan’s calculated elimination of Imamoglu through academic technicalities and alleged ties to PKK is not really an isolated Turkish case but an example of democracy’s global collapse.
Yesterday, Germany rushed constitutional changes without proper scrutiny and with a majority that was already voted out of office, Romania disqualifies candidates on procedural grounds. The list goes on: Hungary under Viktor Orbán, Serbia under Aleksandar Vučić, Israel under Netanyahu, Poland under the Law and Justice party – the democratic backsliding transcends regions and political systems. 72% of humanity now lives under authoritarian control.
There is a new playbook: weaponize legal institutions against opponents, manufacture legitimacy through procedural theater, and dismantle democratic safeguards while maintaining the illusion of constitutionality.
We’re witnessing not democracy’s dramatic assassination but its methodical strangulation through bureaucratic manipulation. This erosion isn’t coincidental but the inevitable outcome of centralized power structures that invariably corrupt even well-designed systems.
I believe that our only viable path forward lies in radical decentralization: distributing governance to local communities, financial sovereignty through crypto networks, and communication via censorship-resistant platforms that no single entity controls.
Decentralized systems restore human dignity by establishing unbreakable cryptographic guarantees rather than depending on the hollow promises of centralized authorities, career politicians, and unelected bureaucrats .
The future belongs to networked individuals collaborating voluntarily through systems designed with liberty as their foundation. Decentralized and globally networked societies are antifragile societies that unleash innovation by enabling thousands of concurrent experiments instead of single-point failures.
Only decentralization can safeguard freedom in an increasingly authoritarian world.
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Why the EU and U.S. Might Collapse
The Qing Dynasty, Ottoman Empire, and Rome were all civilizations stuck in a grim loop.
Decline hit first: overstretch, corruption, and enemies pile up quietly.
Then comes nostalgia: past glories are hyped up – Confucian order, Suleiman’s peak, Roman strength – as a hope to be a fix for the now.
Next, technology-hype steps in: Western tools for Qing, reforms for Ottomans, Christianity for Rome – all fueled short-lived dreams of a turnaround.
But the cracks stay, and it all fell apart.
Today, the U.S. bets on AI and reshoring while chasing “greatness.”
The EU pushes green tech, a military buildup and is dreaming of a greater federation.
Also Russia – stuck in deep nostalgia of long-gone Soviet might – is betting on military tech, but seems to be already in decline’s later stages, struggling against isolation and internal decay.Can they escape the inevitable? Well, let’s try to predict the future.
The Qing, Ottoman, and Rome empires crashed the same way.
Russia’s dying population and oil addiction could break it apart, with Siberia becoming independent, falling under the wing of a more stable neighbor: China.
The EU’s bickering and nationalist mess might split it into weak blocs, forgetting unity, like the Ottomans did.
The US, stuck in political fights and inequality, could lose control and states might go rogue like Rome’s endgame.They are all chasing old nostalgia and shiny tech, ignoring the rot.
DOGE is the only effort to remove the rot.
If DOGE fails or brings polarization to a breaking point, the U.S. federal government will fail, leaving behind the states.
Russia will be left as a small state surrounding Moscow and Siberia as a larger and resource rich state.
What about the EU?
We could see a “Hanseatic 2.0” (Germany, Netherlands, Belgium, Baltics, Scandinavia – potentially including former Russia’s St. Petersburg) prioritizing economic power. A “Latin Axis” (Portugal, Spain, Italy) might strengthen ties with Latin America, forging a Neo-Romanesque sphere. Central Europe could come together around a Visegrád Plus, with a focus on national sovereignty. Meanwhile, the Balkans would remain a volatile periphery, vulnerable to external influence – particularly a strong Türkiye.
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Remote Viewing: Deutsche Bundestagswahl
Without a lot of preparation I tried my very first remote viewing with the German election as a target.
Below is a scanned version of my remote viewing session with a summary and possible interpretation of what I foresaw.
1. The Remote Viewing Session
I became interested in remote viewing and during my research I found a simple remote viewing template on RemoteViewed.com. I decided to just follow the instruction and do my first session to see where it leads me.
The Ideogram
In the ideogram (page 1) I felt chaos. My reflexive drawing showed a lot of zig-zag and noise.
Sensory Impressions
- Sounds: loud, noise
- Textures: stiff
- Temperature: hot
- Colours: red, orange
- Luminescence: bright
- Smells: rotton, sweat
- Tastes: milky
- Dimensions: large, bold
- Aesthetic Impact: chaotic, no structure
Sketching
- My sketch started with the chaos and noise that I already drew in the Ideogram on page one. A swirling, noisy mass possibly symbolizing the raw, unfiltered political turbulence and uncertainty surrnounding the election
- I then overlaid, bolder, distinct layers below the chaos, possibly representing the various political parties, each emerging from the chaos. These layers may be the established and emerging parties.
- After that, I reflexively drew a diagram that weaves through and connects the layers. One or two layers/parties were below the x axis, possibly indicating not making it into the Bundestag. Three layers/parties are above the x axis, where they meet the chaos/noise
- The diagram seems to bring order into the chaos. It brings or suggests connections, relationships, realignments, interactions among the layers/parties and the chaos.
In summary, the sketch captures a transition from a state of disorder to one where clear, dynamic structures/alliances begin to take shape amid political upheaveal.
Summary
The Chaotic Foundation
The sketch begins as a swirling, noisy mass, representing the raw political turbulence and uncertainty permeating the election night. Maybe, this chaos symbolizes the initial flood of emotions, unfiltered voter sentiment, the unexepcted shocks that will accompany the unfolding vote counts on Sunday night.
The intense, noisy chaos forsees the election night as a period of upheaval. As the votes come in, there will be a surge of raw energy. A mix of elation, shock, even protest while the voters’ deep-seated dissatisfaction and desire for change manifest in real time.
Emergence of Distinct Layers
Over the chaotic backdrop, I overlaid bold, distinct layers most likely representing the various political parties. These could be established forces (Union, SPD, and others) and emerging parties. The positioning below the initial chaos suggest that they are attempting to extract order and meaning from the turbulent environment, each vying to define its identity and appeal to a shifting electorate.
The Reflexive Diagram
The subsequent diagram, with clear x- and y-axis interlinks these layer, and is a critical element.
- Below the x-axis: One or two layers indicate that at least one party will not make it into the Bundestag, another party is starting above the x-axis, yet falls below it as x increases. This party may start in the first extraploitation > 5%, yet as the night progresses, falls below the 5% and not make it. Or it might mean this party very barely secure the 5%.
- Above the x-axis: three key layers are visible. Yet only two of these layers are bolder than the third; possibly meaning that only two parties have the majorities to form a coalition. These three layers directly interface with the chaotic environment of the vote.
- The diagram suggests that relationships between the parties exist and possibly allow a realignment – meaning even amid the chaos, there is an emergent order
The diagram division is telling. One or two parties will fall short (symbolized by layer below the x-axis), two major forces will emerge as decisive parties; meaning that only two parties gain enough public mandate to engage in serious coalition negotiations. One third force is above the x-axis, yet declining, which might represent an established polticial forces that loses ground (like SPD or Greens). This paves the wave for an unexpected, transformative coalition – possibly including elements from parties previously sidelined (like AFD).
The reflexive diagram suggests that the chaotic energy isn’t random but a structure emerging within it. This structure may be a new coalition, realignment, and relationships among parties. The choatic energy is channeled into forging connections that, though unorthodox, are robust enough to redefine the government’s foundation.
The overall impression is one of radical transformation. Traditional alliances crumble, and a new, dynamic order takes shape. This could include unexpected partnerships (like the AFD gaining leverage) and the entry of emergent forces that upend conventional politics. The emering light in my sensory sketch might be the embodiment of a new political mandate born from the voter’s desire to break with the past.
2. Interpretation
My remote viewing session describes the current political moment, where chaos and transformation coalesce into a dynamic vision of change.
The initial ideogram conveys a landscape dominated by raw, unfiltered turbulence: a swirling, noisy mess rendered in bold reds and oranges that represent both passion and danger.
The chaotic canvas, felt with a sensation of intense heat, stiffness, and an overwhelming sound of clamor, represents the charged atmosphere permeating the election night.
The environment feels almost tangible: a hot, bright, and palpable space imbued with the odors of decay and sweat, suggesting that the old order is rotting ander pressure even as something new stirs to life.
Overlaying this turbulent backdrop, my sketch introduces distinct, bold layers that represent the various political parties emerging from this maelstrom. These layers looked random at first, but were drawn below an – yet – invisible threshold – the x-axis – hinting at parties that might fail to reach the Bundestag.
Conversely, three prominent layers rise above this line, symbolizing those factions robust enough to engage directly with the prevailing chaos and claim their place in the new order.
The reflexive diagram weaves through these layers, hinting at emergent connections and realignments, suggesting that even amid the cacophony of dissent and uncertainty, there is a nascent structure forming.
The network of lines implies that the political turbulence is not merely disorganized noise, but a transformative energy that is actively reordering alliances and carving out a new government landscape.
My sensor impressions – loud, jarring sounds; a stiff, unyielding texture; intense heat, bright luminescence; and even the contrasting tastes and smells, enrich this narrative. They signify that this is a time of both decay and birth, where the old, rigid, structures are disintegrating, making space for a reimagined, more fluid political order.
3. Foresight
My remote viewing suggests:
- We will see a dramatic and decisive political turning point
- Initial chaos on election night – marked by intense public emotion, surging media noise
- The established political order is forcibly redefined
- Traditional power coalitions are losing their grip, unable to contain the torrent of public discontent, they fracture under the pressure
- We will see an unexpected coalition of forces, one that defies conventional political taboos (possibly a CDU + AFD coalition)
- One or two parties are unable to cross the critical threshold. It will look as if one party crossed the 5%, while during the election night they will fall below it.
- There will be three parties prominently above the threshold
- One potent new political party might surprisingly secure 10% of the vote
- A new coalition will be formed that radically reorders the established dynamics; this might be an unexpected and cross-ideological alliance
- For the AfD, the traditional “no-go” rules (such as the exclusion of the AfD from governing coalitions) may be overthrown by the force of public demand and unprecedented realignment
- If the CDU prove unable to form a stable alliance, there is a possibility that even the AfD could be drawn into a coalition
- The new coalition will be dynamic and willing to break with tradition, implementing bold policies that reflect the voter’s deep desire for systemic change
- On Sunday night, we will birth a new political order, reshaping German governeance in a way that is revolutionary and pragmatic.
- The public will react strongly – both in celebration and protest
- The outcome might not replace the current government, but
My intuitive interpretation:
- The CDU/CSU will struggle to create a coalition and the AfD will enter the negotiation table.
- If the CDU/CSU will not allow this, we will either see new elections or the CDU/CSU will enter a coalition that not only harms them but ultimately falters
- The AfD will surprisingly enter the negotiation table, if it will not happen after this election, they will emerge even stronger in a new election making it impossible to govern without their participation
- My remote viewing sees a new, unrecognized or marginal party break through the electral threshold with approximately 10% of the vote – based on current dynamics, this might be the Linke or BSW. If this is true, and we assume one of them reaches 10% and the other 5%, it will certainly mean the SPD will lose voters and come out at 12 or 13%.
- From my remote viewing, I’d say that the FDP will not make it above 5%.
- Furthermore, the AFD will likely surprise with a much stronger performance than predicted (possibly at 25%)
- Both, a stronger far-left and a stronger right (AfD) will mean the conventional parties will come out worse than predicted in polls. The FDP and CDU will lose voters to AfD, while the SPD and Grüne lose voters to the Linke and BSW.
- Based on my remote viewing and considering current polls, this might be a possible outcome:
- SPD: 12%
- Union: 29%
- Grüne: 11%
- FDP: < 4%
- Linke or BSW: one will reach 10%, the other 5%
- AfD: 29%
Closing Words
This was a fun exercise and my very first remote viewing session and interpetation. It will be fun to see how true or false it will turn out to be!
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The Era of Information Overload
One of the biggest problems of humanity is information overload.
Think about how we used to get information just 50 years ago. We had to deliberately search for them.
We had to engage in conversations, go to the library or bookshop to search relevant books or buy a newspaper.
The internet gave birth to niche forums, and we got search engines which allowed us to find blogs and articles.
Until social media arrived, it was a careful quest for information.
Social media turned it around. Instead of searching for information, we now get bombarded with news, ideas, opinions – from anyone around the world, nonstop 24/7.
With ChatGPT, we got a tool that not only bombarded us with human created information, we can now basically create our own information, endlessly.
The worst: People now flood the internet and social platforms with content they didn’t even write themselves.
What does this mean?
It is now easier and cheaper than ever to access information. Which is great!
But it is harder than ever to focus on what really matters to us.
The now endless stream of information siphons our energy, distracting us from the intentional paths we truly wish to pursue.
I think the best way to consume information consciously is to first have a clear picture of what we want to understand and know, and then to dedicate time for deep-reading and deep-writing.
That means, not only searching for quick information on what truly interests you – but choosing one subject to study, research, and then write your own essay on it.
Whether you publish that essay or not is irrelevant.
Merely writing it keeps your thinking-ability alive.
The important thing is to do it consciously.
Use AI only as a research partner – not a ghostwriter.
Pick what you want to master. Then dedicate time to actually master it – not only consume endless information on whatever the world decides is important now.
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Emerging from Limitations
I think we have an incomplete and false understanding of reality. Because of that, we are moving inside a tiny fraction of endless possibilities.
An AGI system based on previous and current knowledge can only exploit what is possible within that tiny fraction. The missing link seems to be our mystical, uniquely human ability of intuition, which allows highly conscious humans to access knowledge outside our current fraction of possibilities – creating something (ideas, inventions, theories) entirely new, that has never been done before.
Based on how AI systems are built, I expect them to create meaningful advancements within our current frame of understanding; but compared to what is actually possible, these will stay miniscule.
To access what seems impossible, we shouldn’t look for logic and intellect. We should aim to understand consciousness; i.e., study Yogis, understand DMT, make sense of Psilocybin.
Only by heightening our consciousness – and intuition seems to be the highest form of it – will we be able to emerge from current limitations. Because in the end, there are no limitations.
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The First Principles of a Post-AGI Business
OpenAI released its new o3 models and numerous people argue that this is in fact Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) – in other words, an AI system that is on par with human intelligence. Even if o3 is not yet AGI, the emphasis now lies on “yet,” and – considering the exponential progression – we can expect AGI to arrive within months or maximum one to two years.
According to OpenAI, it only took 3 months to go from the o1 model to the o3 model. This is a 4x+ acceleration relative to previous progress. If this speed of AI advancement is maintained, it means that by the end of 2025 we will be as much ahead of o3 as o3 is ahead of GPT-3 (released in May 2020). And, after achieving AGI, the self-reinforcing feedback loop will only further accelerate exponential improvements of these AI systems.
But, most anti-intuitively, even after we have achieved AGI, it will for quite some time look as if nothing has happened. You won’t feel any change and your job and business will feel safe and untouchable. Big fallacy. We can expect that after AGI it will take many months of not 1-2 years for the real transformations to happen. Why? Because AGI in and of itself does not release value into the economy. It will be much more important to apply it. But as AGI becomes cheaper, agentic, and embedded into the world, we will see a transformation-explosion – replacing those businesses and jobs that are unprepared.
I thought a lot about the impact the announced – and soon to be released – o3 model, and the first AGI model are going to have.
To make it short: I am extremely confident that any skill or process that can be digitized will be. As a result, the majority of white-collar and skilled jobs are on track for massive disruption or elimination.
Furthermore, I think many experts and think tanks are fooling themselves by believing that humans will maintain “some edge” and work peacefully side-by-side with an AI system. I don’t think AGI will augment knowledge workers – i.e. anyone working with language, code, numbers, or any kind of specialized software – it will replace them!
So, if your job or business relies purely on standardized cognitive tasks, you are racing toward the cliff’s edge, and it is time to pivot now!
Let’s start with the worst. Businesses and jobs in which you should pivot immediately – or at least not enter as of today – include but are not limited to anything that involves sitting at a computer:
- anything with data entry or data processing (run as fast as you can!)
- anything that involves writing (copywriting, technical writing, editing, proofreading, translation)
- most coding and web development
- SAAS (won’t exist in a couple of years)
- banking (disrupted squared: AGI + Blockchain)
- accounting and auditing (won’t exist as a job in 5-10 years)
- insurance (will be disrupted)
- law (excluding high-stake litigation, negotiation, courtroom advocacy)
- any generic design, music, and video creation (graphic design, stock photography, stock videos)
- market and investment research and analysis (AI will take over 100%)
- trading, both quantitative and qualitative (don’t exit but profit now, but expect to be disrupted within 5 years)
- any middle-layer-management (project and product management)
- medical diagnostics (will be 100% AI within 5 years)
- most standardized professional / consulting services
However, I believe that in high-stakes domains (health, finance, governance), regulators and the public will demand a “human sign-off”. So if you are in accounting, auditing, law, or finance I’d recommend pivoting to a business model where the ability to anchor trust becomes a revenue source.
The question is, where should you pivot to or what business to start in 2025?
My First Principles of a Post-AGI Business Model
First, even as AI becomes infallible, human beings will still crave real, raw, direct trust relationships. People form bonds around shared experiences, especially offline ones. I believe a truly future-proof venture leverages these primal instincts that machines can never replicate at a deeply visceral level. Nevertheless, I believe it is a big mistake to assume that humans will “naturally” stick together just because we are the same species. AGI might quickly appear more reliable, less selfish than most human beings, and have emotional intelligence. So a business build upon the thesis of the “human advantage” must expertly harness and establish emotional ties, tribal belonging, and shared experiences – all intangible values that are far more delicate and complex than logic.
First Principle: Operate in the Physical World
- If your product or service can be fully digitalized and delivered via the cloud, AGI can replicate it with near-zero marginal cost
- Infuse strategic real-world constraints (logistics, location-specific interactions, physical limitations, direct relationships) that create friction and scarcity – where AI alone will struggle
Second Principle: Create Hyper Niche Human Experiences
- The broader audience, the easier it is for AI to dominate. Instead, cultivate specialized groups and subcultures with strong in-person and highly personalized experiences.
- Offer creative or spiritual elements that defy pure rational patterns and thus remain less formulaic
Third Principle: Emphasize Adaptive, Micro-Scale Partnerships
- Align with small, local, or specialized stakeholders. Use alliances with artisan suppliers, local talents, subject-matter experts, and so on.
- Avoid single points of failure; build a decentralized network that is hard for a single AI to replicate or disrupt
Fourth Principle: Embed Extreme Flexibility
- Structured, hierarchical organizations are easily out-iterated by AI that can reorganize and optimize instantly
- Cultivate fluid teams with quickly reconfigurable structures, use agile, project based collaboration that can pivot as soon AGI-based competition arises
Opportunity Vectors
With all of that in mind, there are niches that before looked unattractive, because less scalable, that today offer massive opportunities – let’s call them opportunity vectors.
The first opportunity vector I have already touched upon:
- Trust and Validation Services: Humans verifying or certifying that a certain AI outcome is ethically or legally sound – while irrational, it is exactly what humans will insist on, particularly where liability is high (medicine, finance, law, infrastructure)
- Frontier Sectors with Regulatory and Ethical Friction: Think of markets where AI will accelerate R&D but human oversight, relationship management, and accountability remain essential: genetic engineering, biotech, advanced materials, quantum computing, etc.
The second opportunity vector focuses on the human edge:
- Experience & Community: Live festivals, immersive events, niche retreats, or spiritual explorations – basically any scenario in which emotional energy and a human experience is the core product
- Rare Craftsmanship & Creative Quirks: Think of hyper-personalized items, physical artwork, artisanal or hands-on creations. Items that carry an inherent uniqueness or intangible meaning that an AI might replicate in design, but can’t replicate in “heritage” or provenance.
Risk Tactics
Overall, the best insurance is fostering a dynamic brand and a loyal community that invests personally and emotionally in you. People will buy from those whose values they trust. If you stand for something real, you create an emotional bond that AI can’t break. I’m not talking about superficial corporate social responsibility (nobody cares) but about authenticity that resonates on a near-spiritual level.
As you build your business, erect an ethical moat by providing “failsafe” services where your human personal liability and your brand acts as a shield for AI decisions. This creates trust and differentiation among anonymous pure-AGI play businesses.
Seek and create small, specialized, local, or digital micro-monopolies – areas too tiny or fractal for the “big AI players” to devote immediate resources to. Over time, multiply these micro-monopolies by rolling them up under one trusted brand.
Furthermore, don’t avoid AI. You cannot out-AI the AI. So as you build a business on the human edge moat, you should still harness AI to do 90% of the repetitive and analytic tasks – this frees your human capital to build human relationships, solve ambiguous problem, or invent new offerings.
Bet on What Makes Us Human
To summarize, AI is logical, combinatorial intelligence. The advancements in AI will commoditize logic and disrupt any job and business that is mainly build upon logic as capital. Human – on the other hand – is authenticity. What makes human human and your brand authentic are elements of chaos, empathy, spontaneity. In this context, human is fostering embodied, emotional, culturally contextual, physically immersive experiences. Anything that requires raw creativity, emotional intelligence, local presence, or unique personal relationships will be more AI resilient.
Therefore, a Post-AGI business must involve:
- Tangibility: Physical goods, spaces, unique craftsmanship
- Human Connection: Emotional, face-to-face, improvisational experiences
- Comprehensive Problem Solving: Complex negotiations, messy real-world situations, diverse stakeholder management
The inverse list of AGI proof industries involve some or multiple aspects of that:
- Physical, In-Person, Human-Intensive Services
- Healthcare: Nursing, Physical therapy, Hands-on caregiving
- Skilled trades & craftsmanship
- High-Level Strategy & Complex Leadership
- Diplomacy, Negotiation, Trust building
- Visionary entrepreneurship
- Deep Emotional / Experiential Offerings
- Group experiences, retreats, spiritual or therapeutic gatherings
- Artistic expression that thrives on “imperfection”, physical presence, or spontaneous creativity
- Infrastructure for AGI
- Human-based auditing/verification
- Physical data center operations & advanced hardware
- Application and embedment of AI in the forms of AGI agents, algorithmic improvements, etc. to make it suitable for everyday tasks and workflow
The real differentiator is whether a business is anchored in the physical world’s complexity, emotional trust, or intangible brand relationships. Everything pure data-driven or standardized is on the chopping block – imminently.
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Trump: Rewiring Civilization
Donald Trump’s reelection is not just a political victory—it is the beginning of a seismic realignment of American power. Unshackled by the need for reelection and surrounded by a cadre of contrarian advisors, Trump stands ready to rewrite the rules of domestic governance, global trade, and national security. Not since the mid-20th century has a U.S. presidency promised such a fundamental overhaul of the nation’s operating system.
This moment introduces a high-variance environment where volatility is the new norm and uncertainty both a risk and an opportunity. Trump’s method turns conventional wisdom on its head: predictability, once prized, is now a vulnerability; unpredictability, a calculated asset. This inversion compels domestic institutions, foreign governments, multinational corporations, and investors to abandon old assumptions and prepare for a new, uncharted era of American leadership.
Strategic Unpredictability
In conventional politics, predictability reinforces trust and stabilizes alliances. Trump turns this formula on its head. Borrowing from his business roots, he treats governance like an endless high-stakes negotiation, refusing to be pinned down by familiar rules. Instead of relying on time-honored frameworks—NATO’s ritualistic guarantees, half-century-old trade deals, bureaucratic inertia—Trump embraces a sophisticated combinatorial approach to decision-making. He experiments with countless permutations of strategies and tactics, making his next move virtually impossible to predict.
This unpredictability, often mistaken for chaos, is calculated. Trump breaks traditions, mixes signals, and never commits fully to a single position. The discomfort this causes among media, diplomats, and policymakers arises from their inability to slot him neatly into known categories. As allies and adversaries scramble to decode shifting signals, they must now renegotiate assumptions and adapt on the fly. Formerly stable trading partners can no longer rely on a static understanding of U.S. policy, and institutions once considered untouchable must re-justify their relevance.
The benefits for Trump’s agenda can be substantial: unthinkable reforms, renegotiated pacts more favorable to U.S. interests, and revived domestic industries. The risk, however, is perpetual uncertainty—markets can rattle, trust erode, and miscalculations prove costly. Yet by keeping the world off-balance, Trump preserves maximum strategic freedom, forcing every stakeholder to engage on his terms. This approach reveals Trump as a leader who, far from being misguided or simplistic, demonstrates a rare creative intelligence—one that thrives on complexity, defies convention, and redefines the limits of political possibility.
A Presidency with Succession Plan
No longer seeking reelection, Trump’s ambitions transcend short-term popularity. He envisions a legacy enduring centuries, a future where his descendants inherit a reshaped America. This shift in time horizon is profound. It emboldens him to attempt structural overhauls that others fear as political suicide. He can endure short-term pain, criticism, and even chaos if he believes it sets a foundation that benefits future generations.
Rather than governing for one election cycle, Trump is orchestrating a multi-decade realignment aimed at reviving stagnant industries, redrawing global trade patterns, and consolidating a durable political base. Central to this strategy is J.D. Vance, a sharp and versatile leader who will command broad appeal if the administration delivers on its promises. As a policy entrepreneur who blends conservative instincts with selective progressive ideas, his potential appeal across party lines sets him apart from orthodox politicians. If he can claim credit for tangible improvements—such as a resurgent manufacturing corridor in the Midwest—Vance’s path to the presidency in 2028 becomes clearer, ensuring policy stability that stretches well beyond Trump’s final day in office.
Beyond J.D. Vance, Trump’s succession plan includes other high-potential figures who could easily extend his vision well into the 2030s. Robert F. Kennedy Jr., with his unique blend of populist appeal, independent thinking, and a growing base across traditional party lines, emerges as a natural complement to Trump’s coalition. His presence signals a broader ideological realignment, bridging gaps between disillusioned Democrats, independents, and Republicans. Additionally, Trump’s children – particularly Donald Trump Jr. and Ivanka Trump – are well positioned to inherit both the political machinery and cultural influence their father has cultivated. Together, this combination of J.D. Vance, RFK Jr., and the Trump family creates a formidable roster of successors, capable of sustaining Trump’s disruptive agenda for 12 years, or even two decades.
This multi-generational continuity is the most important possibility to internalize. Waiting Trump out is no longer an option. Institutions and foreign governments cannot bank on a swift return to pre-Trump norms. Instead, they must recognize the likelihood of an enduring disruption and recalibration. Again, even if Trump only succeeds in reviving the Rust Belt, it seems likely that the U.S. will spend the coming decade dismantling, digitizing, and rebirthing its institutions, forging a state that sets new efficiency standards and redefines global power.
Trump x Musk
In the tense aftermath of the assassination attempt on Donald Trump, Elon Musk’s swift and unequivocal endorsement stunned the public. Within minutes, his bold show of confidence galvanized millions of hesitant voters, emboldening them to step forward and voice their support.
Musk went further, warning that if Trump, armed with superior policies, a seasoned team, and lessons from his first term, still failed to defeat a weak Democratic challenger, it would mark America’s last truly meaningful election. While dramatic, this message was less prophecy than critique—an attack on the creeping institutional inertia in Washington. In Musk’s view, the real danger laid not in some North Korean style regime but in the emergence of a system that, like California’s one-party politics, renders elections mere formalities. If entrenched bureaucracy could outlast Trump’s best efforts, democracy would become ritual rather than reality, and the nation’s political destiny would drift beyond the voter’s reach.
The Musk – Milei Connection
Elon Musk’s fascination with Argentina’s libertarian president, Javier Milei, adds an unexpected dimension to the Trump-Musk relationship. Milei’s reforms, centered on relentless deregulation and led by a powerful Ministry of Deregulation dismantling barriers at lightning speed, offer a live test bed for the libertarian governance Musk envisions and Trump might embrace. The Argentine experiment—wielded by the sharp intellect of Federico Sturzenegger’s ministry—cuts one to five obstacles a day, shrinking a bloated state into a lean, innovation-ready apparatus.
This bold agenda resonates strongly with Musk, who has hinted at parallel efforts in the U.S. through his proposed Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE). Both he and Milei share a taste for smashing outdated frameworks, allowing decentralized markets to flourish and forcing institutions to justify their existence. Milei’s admiration for Trump as a “true warrior” and “viking” cements this ideological triangle. It suggests a cross-pollination of ideas—Milei’s ruthless pruning of state power, Musk’s efficiency crusade, and Trump’s willingness to rewrite the rulebook—potentially softening Trump’s reliance on tariffs and energizing his push for structural reform.
An Alliance of Consequence
Elon Musk’s transition from outside visionary to an influential policymaker is more than a new addition to Trump’s arsenal—it’s a force multiplier. Musk’s wide-angle, multi-planetary perspective infuses fresh intellectual rigor into a governance style defined by volatility, turning unpredictable impulses into purposeful experimentation. But his influence no longer stands alone. The Milei effect now permeates these corridors of power, seeding radical ideas about deregulation and streamlined government that are not theoretical but field-tested in Argentina’s bold experiment.
With Milei’s blueprint as a proof of concept, Musk and Trump find tangible models for dismantling entrenched bureaucracies. Instead of grappling with intangible theories, they can point to real results—economic barriers torn down at a breakneck pace, the state machinery pared back without collapsing the social fabric. Argentina’s evidence emboldens Musk’s push for sweeping reforms—faster permitting, leaner agencies, a dynamic redefinition of public service—and helps Trump justify riskier moves that traditional politics once deemed unthinkable.
The result is not mere chaos, but a calculated recalibration. As Musk invests time shaping innovation policies and operational efficiencies, he draws on lessons from Milei’s successes to justify even bolder undertakings. These new frameworks, influenced by both Musk’s contrarian brilliance and Milei’s radical pragmatism, feed back into Trump’s governance style. Each actor accelerates the others, creating a self-reinforcing cycle of disruption and renewal.
The result: a triad of global disruptors—Trump, Musk, Milei—whose ideological synergy could reshape how governments function and markets evolve. Argentina’s libertarian revolution provides a clarifying lens into what future American reforms might look like: radical, data-driven, and unapologetically free-market, with global ripples challenging stagnation wherever it takes root.
The DOGE Experiment
The synergy between Trump, Musk, and the lessons drawn from abroad now converges within the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE). Freed from traditional templates, DOGE seeks to simplify tax codes, automate administrative procedures, and use technology to slash bureaucratic dead weight at breakneck speed.
Imagine the U.S. government as an advanced operating system: blockchain-based audits instead of paper trails; AI-driven licensing to eliminate red tape; simpler, unified tax codes; algorithms to streamline procurement. DOGE aims for order-of-magnitude improvements in efficiency, cutting decades of accumulated friction.
The United States is no fragile backwater; its immense global influence and deeply entrenched institutions mean that any disruption reverberates across markets, alliances, and long-standing treaties. As the world’s largest economy and a cornerstone of geopolitical stability, the U.S. cannot afford large-scale missteps. Yet the DOGE initiative adopts a startup mentality—rapid iteration and high-stakes trial and error. The potential upside is transformative: streamlined public services, productivity-boosting incentives, and a leaner, more efficient government. The risk, however, is equally profound. Removing critical structural supports without care could destabilize the system, triggering unintended and potentially catastrophic consequences.
This tension underscores the importance of the existing talent housed within the U.S. bureaucracy. Unlike Argentina’s historically disorganized public sectors, Washington’s institutional apparatus holds deep reservoirs of domain expertise—i.e. in foreign affairs. The DOGE mandate is to harness this knowledge, not extinguish it. Musk’s first-principles logic demands that old frameworks pass rigorous stress tests: if a structure can’t be justified, it goes. But he must also ensure valuable specialists remain engaged, transforming inertial complexity into dynamic competence.
The outcome is radical uncertainty. Markets should expect breakneck policy pivots, unconventional alliances, and sudden regulatory changes. The winners will be those who anticipate Musk’s logic: simplify processes, reduce friction, solve root problems, and think big. Those who rely on slow-moving bureaucracies and incrementalism may find themselves outpaced.
Tax Reforms: Toward Radical Simplification
Trump’s envisioned tax overhaul—steeped in campaign promises of cuts, credits, and targeted relief—now faces a deeper metamorphosis under the influence of Elon Musk’s DOGE. While conventional analysis fixates on marginal rates and brackets, Musk approaches taxation like a first-principles engineering problem, stripping away centuries of incremental complexity.
This perspective challenges the old narrative. Instead of parsing line items—tips, overtime, tariffs—Musk demands a wholesale reset: a flattened structure free of intricate carve-outs and sector-specific giveaways. Such radical simplification acknowledges a central truth: complexity breeds corruption, invites rent-seeking, and rewards the nimble few at the expense of the many. If America’s fractal tax code now favors professional tax strategists and corporate accountants fluent in loopholes, Musk wants a system comprehensible to any citizen with a smartphone.
The most likely outcome? A streamlined tax regime that reduces friction across the entire economy. Imagine minimal categories of income, uniform treatment of earnings, and a largely automated compliance process. Smart contracts and digital ledgers could replace annual filings with instantaneous settlements, neutering the bureaucratic machinery that has grown around tax enforcement. These changes would make it harder for both corporations and governments to hide inefficiencies—an outcome that resonates with Trump’s broader ambition to strip away outdated infrastructure.
Yet this simplicity harbors profound implications. A truly flat, transparent system would expose the real winners and losers of American policy choices. If protectionism endures, tariffs would stand naked as a parallel tax, visible in real time rather than obfuscated by a maze of deductions and rebates. Politicians, accustomed to cloaking redistribution in complexity, might find it harder to pass off subtle forms of patronage as populism. In essence, a maximally simplified tax code removes the camouflage that has protected vested interests for decades.
Of course, simplicity will backfire if introduced bluntly. Entire industries, from tax advisory firms to lobbyists, depend on complexity’s shelter. Abruptly leveling the landscape will produce short-term chaos as entrenched players scramble for new footing. Moreover, while Musk’s logic-driven approach promises elegance, reality may resist tidy solutions. Certain incentives—promoting green energy or encouraging domestic manufacturing—might still demand nuance. But the starting point is no longer incremental tinkering; it’s a clean slate, forcing every tax provision to justify its existence from zero.
Tariffs: Negotiation Leverage
Once dismissed by orthodox economists as blunt and inefficient, tariffs now stand at the center of Trump’s global playbook—not as a fixed doctrine, but as a tactical lever. Free market idealists champion free trade as the route to optimal outcomes, yet real-world markets rarely start on equal footing. Nations tilt the field with subsidies, currency manipulation, and hidden regulatory hurdles. In such an environment, tariffs become a strategic scalpel that can reset terms, enforce reciprocity, and pry open previously closed markets.
For Trump, a sweeping 60% duty on Chinese imports is no final blueprint—it’s an opening offer designed to shock the system. The message: negotiate, adjust, or pay the price. This unpredictability unsettles long-standing assumptions. Allies and adversaries alike must recalibrate, as stable supply chains give way to fluid production networks in Vietnam, India, or Mexico. If done well, these shifts yield a more balanced distribution of manufacturing and reduce America’s vulnerabilities to single-source suppliers. In this sense, tariffs can foster resilience and diversification, mitigating the geopolitical choke points that free trade theory never fully acknowledged.
Yet these weapons must be wielded with surgical precision. Mishandled tariffs risk alienating key partners, rattling markets, and sparking inflation. They can morph into a hidden tax on consumers, undermining the very domestic revitalization they promise. Elon Musk’s perspective offers a cautionary note: restructuring supply chains is no quick fix. Shifting factories and retraining workers takes years. Abrupt, across-the-board tariffs can fracture critical production systems overnight. Prudence suggests a phased approach, signaling intentions early, allowing industries time to adapt, and using threats as negotiation chips rather than sledgehammers.
Trump’s coalition of advisors—visionaries like Musk, pragmatists like Howard Lutnick—emphasizes targeted action over blunt force. Lutnick proposes a formulaic approach: match a trading partner’s tariffs, impose them only where the U.S. can compete, and use them as a bargaining chip rather than an end state. Paired with Musk’s operational realism, this strategy tempers political showmanship with economic feasibility.
Instead of uniform duties, expect a tiered system: minimal tariffs for allies who reciprocate, moderate rates for neutral partners, and punishing levies for strategic rivals until fair terms emerge.
Under this lens, tariffs become a negotiating language—a means of translating America’s industrial resurgence into concrete policy outcomes. Politically, these moves resonate with the Rust Belt and other regions hungry for manufacturing revivals. Economically, they remain high-risk experiments, vulnerable to miscalculation. But the goal is not permanent protectionism; it’s to restore equilibrium. If tariffs coax other nations toward true free trade—removing their own barriers—they ultimately may lead to a more open global system than before.
In short, Trump’s tariff agenda is less about ideology and more about leverage. Done right, tariffs serve as corrective scalpel, not crude club—enforcing fairness where laissez-faire rhetoric has failed. In a world of asymmetric rules and systemic imbalances, this may be the stark, contrarian truth: without the threat of tariffs, free trade’s promised harmony remains a chimera.
Renegotiating the World
For over seven decades, America’s alliances and institutions have rested on the scaffolding erected in the aftermath of the Second World War. NATO, Bretton Woods, the UN—these once-bold innovations now feel like aging load-bearing beams creaking under their own weight. They have delivered stability and prosperity, but also complacency and moral hazard. As the world fragments into multipolar tension—Tehran, Moscow, Kiev, Jerusalem, Taiwan, India-Pakistan—Donald Trump’s second term thrusts these pillars into a stress test. His approach is simple yet radical: prove your worth or face demolition.
This contrarian posture rattles allies accustomed to American predictability. For decades, Europe has invested minimally in its own defense under the U.S. umbrella. Now, NATO members must confront the possibility that American guarantees are no longer unconditional. The same logic extends to trade blocs, security treaties, and bilateral pacts formed in a bygone era. By challenging their continued relevance, Trump invites allies and adversaries alike to recalibrate. In this environment, alliances cease to be moral endowments and become contingent bargains that must demonstrate current strategic value.
This renegotiation is risky. The global order no longer pivots neatly around a stable U.S.-Soviet axis, nor is it the unipolar moment of the 1990s. Today’s order is an uneven chessboard of nuclear weapons, resource competition, and ideological fragmentation. Overturning familiar architectures could yield unexpected cascades. Pushing NATO partners to shoulder more responsibility might strengthen the alliance—or fracture it. Pressuring countries reliant on U.S. market access may secure fairer deals—or encourage them to form new blocs that exclude Washington. Each move is a high-stakes bet, where skillful statecraft could produce more honest and balanced arrangements or trigger crises that even superpowers struggle to contain.
But from Trump’s vantage point, the old frameworks no longer align with American interests. They’re relics of a unique historical anomaly—the post-1945 order—when America’s unmatched might and nuclear stalemate enforced a global architecture. That anomaly, he argues, is over. In an age where strategic rivals like China and Russia test the boundaries with greater subtlety, clinging to outdated agreements is not strategy but inertia.
Critics warn that eroding trust and predictability drains American soft power, making it harder to rally allies in crises like pandemics or climate shocks. True enough, unpredictability can sabotage diplomacy. But predictability can also foster free-riding and entrench dysfunction. Trump’s gamble is that by shaking old alliances to their core, he can force genuine renewal. Perhaps NATO will finally modernize and balance its burden-sharing. Perhaps trade compacts will shed legacy constraints and become truly reciprocal.
The outcome is uncertain. Renegotiating the world order in real time risks overreach and unintended consequences. Yet standing pat means risking slow decline under ossified structures that no longer serve American interests or global stability. In a world of rising stakes and diminished certainties, Trump’s challenge to the old order represents a radical, contrarian attempt to forge a more honest equilibrium—one in which every alliance, every treaty, and every institution must earn its keep.
The Miscalculation Threat
Modern leaders, Trump included, have never personally witnessed the horrors of full-scale war. They grew up in an era defined by contained conflicts, drone strikes, and managed escalations rather than battles that raze cities and reorder civilizations. Without scars from industrial-scale bloodshed, they treat war as a toolkit, negotiable and bounded—a game where one can bluff, push, and recalibrate at will.
This war amnesia skews judgment. Absent the visceral memory of trenches or mushroom clouds, today’s statesmen and strategists assume that rational actors will always stop short of catastrophe. But true rationality erodes when survival is at stake. Corner a nuclear-armed power—Russia over Ukraine, China over Taiwan—and the logic of controlled brinkmanship can unravel. The difference between a shrewd gamble and a disastrous misread shrinks to a razor’s edge.
Trump’s unpredictability, in theory, can shatter diplomatic inertia and open unprecedented avenues for deal-making. Yet the same volatility can push adversaries beyond their comfort zones. Misread signals and cultural blind spots can amplify misunderstandings. In a world of intertwined alliances and nuclear tripwires, the room for error narrows to nothing. A single miscalculation could cascade toward irreversible chaos.
Compounding the problem is a distorted concept of strength. Without the crucible of large-scale war, leaders conflate bluster with courage. Posturing and chest-thumping replace the tempered resolve forged in battle. This masculinity crisis encourages leaders to prove their mettle through brinkmanship, pushing strategic tensions to the brink under the assumption that someone else will blink first.
Yet history warns us. Before World War I, European leaders believed war would be short and decisive. They lacked the mental model for industrial slaughter. The result was unimaginable carnage. Today’s faith in rational deterrence and limited warfare is equally untested against nuclear thresholds. The risk: assuming that what has never happened cannot happen—until it does.
For investors and policymakers, these tail risks matter. Even a tiny probability of nuclear exchange dwarfs conventional cost-benefit calculations. Markets often discount extreme events, but the logic here fails: one nuclear flash, and investment theses vanish. Realist scenario planning must treat the unthinkable as possible, building robust hedges and diplomatic channels that anticipate irrational moves.
Leaders must confront the fragility behind their confident theories. They can run hard-nosed simulation exercises exposing the realities of nuclear war, engage historians for depth, and deliberately cultivate humility. The aim: to ensure that strategic unpredictability—useful for realigning outdated frameworks—is anchored by a genuine appreciation for the catastrophic potential of miscalculation.
The stakes transcend any single presidency. Trump’s style highlights an underlying vulnerability in the global order: the illusion that every escalation can be managed. Without conscious effort to re-inject war’s existential reality into policymaking, we risk turning bravado and guesswork into the architects of our undoing.
An American Renaissance
Amid volatility, uncertainty, and the rattling of old foundations, the United States finds open ground for reinvention—fertile space where scientific audacity, inventive genius, and fearless exploration can flourish without constraint. Freed from the constraints of incrementalism, the United States can embrace the role of a frontier civilization once again: a nation unafraid to ask audacious questions, challenge sacred doctrines, and test the limits of the possible.
For decades, America’s once-thriving innovation engine has stalled, suffocated by excessive regulation, rigid academic dogmas, and bureaucratic inertia. Critical fields—from theoretical physics to biotechnology—have languished behind walls of entrenched interests and outdated paradigms. Now, with Trump’s second term shaking the foundations of the status quo and Elon Musk’s contrarian vision gaining traction, the United States faces a rare chance to reignite its pioneering spirit. Instead of tinkering at the margins, Trump and his team propose far-reaching reforms: radically simplified tax codes, streamlined regulations, and reimagined immigration policies designed to attract the brightest global talent and unleash their creative potential.
This intellectual and cultural thaw reverberates through the sciences. The same nation that once sent men to the Moon now contemplates multi-planetary homesteading. If the old gatekeepers who have stalled theoretical physics for half a century can be bypassed, research into next-generation propulsion, dark chemistries, and new fundamental frameworks beyond the standard model can finally flourish. The tyranny of stagnant string theory, the deep entrenchment of cautious committees, and the decades of intellectual ossification may give way to what some call “cowboy science”: a return to risk-taking, intuition-led breakthroughs, and the heroic ethos of individual genius.
As these reformist energies spread, the U.S. can leverage a more fluid, reciprocal global trading landscape. Realigned alliances and supply chains engineered for resilience—not just cost-minimization—create fertile conditions for deep-tech ventures, advanced AI labs, and next-generation energy systems. Investors, entrepreneurs, and scientists will gravitate toward America’s rejuvenated ecosystem, drawn by the promise of intellectual freedom and the exhilarating possibility of rewriting fundamental laws of physics. Under these conditions, even concepts dismissed as far-fetched—interstellar travel, room-temperature superconductors, and quantum computing at scale—begin to feel tangible rather than utopian.
Culturally, a merit-driven ethos replaces hollow credentialism. With intellectual courage in fashion and bold ideas encouraged rather than stifled, the private and public sectors unite in a grand experiment of renewal. The old narrative that the 20th century’s greatest leaps cannot be repeated or surpassed is discarded. Instead, the horizon expands: the stars become destinations, the atom a playground, and the genome a toolkit.
Of course, nothing guarantees success. The same high-variance environment that enables breakthroughs also courts failure. But the alternative—endless stagnation under rigid orthodoxies—is far less appealing. Risk and reward remain inseparable. Yet if America seizes this rare moment of disruption, the outcome could be a cultural and scientific flourishing that defines the 21st century. The world would witness an America not just rearranging old furniture but remodeling the entire house of knowledge and capability.
My Perspective
Embrace the uncertainty. Legacy frameworks, linear forecasts, and predictable policy arcs disintegrate before our eyes. In this new environment, strategic thinking must center on asymmetry, adaptability, and an appetite for chaos. The stable handrails of the past—fossilized alliances, orderly trade pacts, incremental reforms—no longer guide us. Instead, we confront a world where each assumption must be retested, each relationship retooled.
Short-term, don’t be fooled by today’s optimism. A global recession in 2025 looks increasingly plausible. Just as radical tariff policies and gutting government agencies shake domestic supply chains, weakened global demand may trigger market shocks.
I expect immediate disappointment in the headlines: over-leveraged sectors are at risk, euphoria is unsustainable, and cracks beneath Bidenomics’ veneer are about to surface. Yet in this churn also lies profound opportunity. High-variance environments punish rigidity and stagnation, while rewarding those who sense the underlying logic: volatility can be harnessed, not merely weathered. Consider three critical asymmetries shaping the investment and business landscape:
1. Bidenomics Masked Fragility
Beneath surface-level confidence, America’s economic foundations have softened. Over 60% of recent jobs growth is pinned to government expansion, residual pandemic adjustments, and immigration—rather than genuine private-sector dynamism. Key signals such as spiking credit rejection rates and record-high consumer credit APRs (averaging 23.4%) expose deep vulnerabilities.
My Perspective: Be careful and consider shorting sectors drunk on euphoria and leverage. Hedge through defensive allocations in utilities, select commodities, and volatility instruments. Expect the market’s reality-check to be swift and severe.
2. Trump’s Shock Therapy
Trump’s proposed moves – >60% tariffs on Chinese imports, mass deportations, a dramatic agency cull – risk near-term upheaval. Inflation may flare as re-shored supply chains struggle with labor gaps and capacity constraints. Yet these same policies could, over time, liberate America’s productive energy. Leaner agencies, streamlined regulations, and targeted immigration reforms might unleash a “productivity renaissance.”
My Perspective: As the tariff storm gathers, go long on domestic industrial plays, automation tech, and logistics hubs that stand to benefit from re-shoring. Short inflation-sensitive assets and prepare for a recessionary downdraft. Hedge with precious metals, critical commodities, and volatility products. Meanwhile, larger positions in frontier technologies poised to flourish in a liberated innovation environment.
3. The Geopolitical Pivot: The Dollar and BRICS
China’s ascendancy as the dominant trade partner for over 120 nations, along with BRICS’ rising economic heft, indicates a shifting global gravity. Mounting U.S. refinancing needs and reduced foreign appetite for Treasuries challenge American financial stability. Yet, the U.S. retains unmatched capital markets and remains the ultimate safe haven in moments of panic. Trump’s readiness to deploy financial sanctions and trade barriers could paradoxically reinforce dollar dominance.
My Perspective: Diversify currency exposure. Maintain core holdings in dollar-denominated assets but add hedges: gold, Bitcoin, rare-earth ETFs, and neutral currencies like the Swiss franc (CHF) or Singapore dollar (SGD).
Conclusion: Engaging with the New Parameters
We have entered a period that defies simple narratives. Trump’s reelection announces to the world: comfortable equilibrium is over. His brand of strategic unpredictability invites us to reimagine what American power, governance, and global influence can be. However, the end of safe assumptions means the start of dynamic possibilities.
While the near-term disruptions will test even the most resilient systems, the long-term vision is undeniably bright for those who play the horizon. A renaissance of innovation, deep-tech breakthroughs, and industrial re-shoring is not only plausible but increasingly probable as legacy constraints fall away.
A revitalized America, unafraid to challenge stagnation, could emerge as a global leader in space exploration, advanced physics, AI, and frontier sciences. Trump’s recalibration provides the foundation for a leaner, more dynamic economy capable of driving exponential progress.
I believe: for investors, entrepreneurs, and visionaries, this is the time to look beyond the turbulence and focus on the extraordinary opportunities waiting on the other side of disruption.
Investment Guidance
Identifying Signals and Triggers
- Short-Term (< 12 Months):
- Prioritize Liquidity & Intelligence: Maintain higher cash reserves and invest in geopolitical risk analysis and scenario modeling. Deploy specialized teams or AI-driven tools to monitor trade policy changes, alliance realignments, and tariff announcements in near-real time.
- Trade Shock Indicators: Watch for a surge in container freight rates or abrupt commodity price spikes as tariffs hit. When the Baltic Dry Index or forward freight agreements jump unexpectedly, it’s a sell signal for overly exposed consumer goods equities and a prompt to rotate into logistics-tech and North American manufacturing automation.
- Sovereign Debt & Currency Pressure: Keep a close eye on U.S. Treasury auctions. If foreign participation dips below historical averages by more than 20%, prepare to adjust currency hedges. Add allocations to “safe haven” currencies (CHF, SGD), selected gold or rare-earth ETFs, and volatility indices. Reduce reliance on sectors heavily tied to stable policy (e.g., heavily subsidized industries) and increase optionality in energy metals and critical supply chain components.
- Medium-Term (2–3 Years):
- Innovation Inflection Points: Direct capital into exponential technologies and applied sciences; advanced materials, quantum computing, biotech, and AI-driven compliance tools. As bureaucratic complexity shrinks, these sectors stand to benefit outstandingly from faster innovation cycles and greater capital efficiency. A spike in private venture rounds in fields such as advanced materials or ultra-capacitor energy storage signals imminent ecosystem tipping points.
- Geographical Differentiation: Identify markets that handle uncertainty well—e.g., countries with robust legal systems, flexible labor markets, and strong digital infrastructure. These places can serve as operational hubs from which you can rapidly scale or contract as global policies shift.
- Regulatory Overhauls: Monitor legislative dockets. If immigration reforms fast-track visas for STEM PhDs and if R&D tax credits deepen annually, expect a 2–3 year lag before the next wave of intellectual capital floods U.S. labs. Increase exposure to biotech and quantum computing startups shortly after such reforms pass.
- Long-Term (5+ Years):
- Global Power Reorder: If emerging markets, spurred by U.S. unpredictability, coalesce around alternative trade blocs that stabilize after 5+ years, that’s your cue. Prepare for a world of modular alliances. Align long-horizon infrastructure bets with these new power centers.
Scenario-Based Policy and Investments
- “China Retaliation” Scenario: As soon Beijing imposes further capital controls and technology export bans, pivot quickly:
- Reduce exposure to companies dependent on Chinese rare-earths.
- Expand positions in U.S. rare-earth suppliers and recycling tech (long specialized recycling firms).
- Initiate currency hedges: Increase gold allocation, add JPY or CHF positions.
- “Nuclear Brinkmanship” Scenario: Early indicators: intensified troop movements, erratic diplomatic communications:
- Increase cyber-insurance and cybersecurity equity holdings as cyber-warfare risks peak.
- Secure put options on major indices; a 15–20% market drop in a flash-crisis scenario can be mitigated by well-structured options positions.
- Reassess treasury holdings and ensure a diversified emergency liquidity plan—short-duration U.S. debt, gold, and stablecoins backed by reputable custodians.
Positioning for the Innovation Renaissance
- Initiate a strategic allocation into venture funds, selected stocks, and indexes focusing on deep tech; quantum sensors, quantum-safe encryption, next-gen propulsion (for aerospace), and synthetic biology platforms.
- Monitor and partner with universities and national labs. The moment immigration policies simplify STEM recruitment, double down on early-stage biotech and materials R&D firms that secure top-tier postdoctoral talent.
Embrace a Layered Risk Architecture
Create a layered defense:
- Core stable assets (30–40%)
- Growth equities and frontier tech (10–20%)
- Defensive hedges in commodities, currencies, and volatility instruments (5–10%)
- Agile, tactical allocations that adjust quarterly based on policy signals (remainder)
Cultural and Organizational Adaptation
In your firm and institution:
- Launch scenario planning committees that simulate tariff impacts, alliance breakdowns, or regulatory leaps.
- Recruit analysts with backgrounds in geopolitics, physics, and biotech—do not rely on MBAs and economists.
- Encourage experimentation within your decision-making processes—pilot new portfolio strategies on a small scale before scaling up.
For Non-U.S. Founders & Foreign Firms:
- Incorporate in the U.S. and use reputable U.S. startup accelerators and venture networks to navigate evolving immigration policies and establish a strong launchpad.
- Focus on mid-tier American cities seeking innovation and talent inflows, where streamlined approvals and incentives provide a foothold.
- Build solutions that complement, stabilize, or enhance U.S.-based production and logistics systems, emphasizing resilience and cost-effectiveness.
- Offer platforms or products that facilitate seamless cross-border transactions, digital collaboration, or remote operations as global markets rewire.
- Short-Term (< 12 Months):
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AI-to-AI Communication
Nowadays, most emails I receive – including technical and legal ones – are undoubtedly written by ChatGPT. Which I’m okay with – but I find it rather funny that I now have to read what an AI has written only to input the context myself into my AI system. We are effectively constraining AI systems to communicate via human intermediaries – which is a laughably stupid and cognitively inefficient approach.
I think it is wasted energy to make AIs even better at mimicking human communication – this energy is better used in developing AI-to-AI communication protocols that bypass human language entirely. Instead of exchanging emails written in human language, AIs should directly exchange action items, structured data, intent vectors, or probabilistic models. How valuable is it really in making AI communication more human-readable? I believe it is about freeing AIs to communicate in their “native language” while humans simply set high-level objectives and constraints. No latency, no information loss, no mental drainage, more time for actual human communication and interaction.
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The Future Belongs to the Intuitive
Everything looks as if the future belongs entirely to machines, where decisions will be driven solely by logic and data. This makes sense from a logical perspective. AI can already shift through terabytes of real-time data in seconds. It can identify patterns the human eye cannot see. As these systems become more sophisticated and continue to improve exponentially, it is fair to predict that in the near-term future we will not only push data- and logic-driven decision-making to a point of saturation, we will also experience a natural tendency to lean heavily on logic-based recommendations from advanced AI systems.
I fear that the more we rely on these data-driven arguments, the more we risk sidelining a crucial element of decision-making: human intuition. We risk that algorithms and AI systems become the default arbiters of choice. The more powerful their capabilities become, the higher will be the temptation to dismiss our intuition. We will end up making decisions purely on logic, with every action optimized by data.
Here is the contrarian truth: as AI systems gets better at advanced reasoning, processing even more data, and identifying patterns, pure logical and knowledge based analysis becomes commoditized.
We are already in a world where decisions are made for us by algorithms and AI systems. Not only do they decide which video we should watch next on YouTube, they also provide decision makers with data and insights – whether it is in finance, trading, marketing, hiring, or medicine. And why not? AI systems process data faster, more accurately, and with few biases than any human being ever could. They can recognize patterns that would take humans years to discern. Advanced algorithms spit out logical predictions based on mathematical conclusions. For tasks like optimizing logistics, predicting customer behavior, and analyzing stock market trends, it is a no-brainer–AI wins.
It seems logical to assume that pure data and computation will lead to the best decisions. But this is flawed because there is something missing in this equation. Decisions are not always about logic. The most important decisions in life and business are anything but logical. They are guided by subtle, almost imperceptible signals we cannot fully explain, but we feel. This is intuition, the gut feeling we experience when something just feels right or feels wrong. While it is tempting to dismiss these feelings as irrational, they often turn out to be right.
Optimizing decisions based on more data and more logical reasoning is thereby flawed, and I fear that the more we lean on AI systems to guide our choices, the more we risk sidelining the most powerful tool humans possess: intuition.
Scientific discoveries, for example, are not made as a result of logical reasoning. They are regularly the result of an “aha moment” of insight when knowledge seems to come from nowhere. Or think of the countless stories of entrepreneur who make bold decisions based on nothing but an intangible sense of certainty. Steve Jobs went against market research and expert advice when he decided to launch the iPhone. Elon Musk bet his fortune on SpaceX when logic screamed that the odds were against him. There are investors who pull out of a seemingly attractive opportunity just moments before it tanks, driven by nothing more than a gut feeling. Also, good music just comes to the musician, and it is not created by technical skill.
Through intuition, we can feel the subtle energetic currents of events before they manifest. It’s the mother who knows something’s wrong with her child before receiving the call from school, or the traveler who avoids a particular flight, only to find out later it crashed.
These aren’t coincidences or anomalies—they are examples of intuition at work. In these moments, we are not responding to what is, but we are aligning ourselves with what could be. We sense reality before it unfolds. This intuitive intelligence is more than a vague “gut feeling”; it is an ability to sense what isn’t in the data, to feel the reality before it is fully formed. With our intuition, we tap into a deeper field of information that transcends the conscious mind.
Our rational mind is not very good at listening to our intuition. It is busy making sense of the things in our material world. It is busy with its endless internal monologue and anxiety. Our mind is constantly generating thoughts – and the more data we have access to (think of the infinite information feeds from social media, the news, and now generative AI) the more difficult it becomes to access our intuitive intelligence.
Furthermore, I fear that, the more ubiquitous AI systems and the more convincing their logic-based arguments become, the more we will trust and rely on them blindly. When an algorithm presents a data-backed recommendation, it is hard to contradict it. The numbers add up, the patterns are clear – it feels almost reckless to go against the machine. But that is exactly the risk.
The stronger the logical basis for decision-making becomes, the harder it will be to justify following your gut. The result? We will end up in a world where every decision is optimized for efficiency and logic – at the cost of creativity, foresight, and frankly, the human element.
We risk entering a near-term future where we become slaves to the data, losing the ability to make decisions that transcend the immediate facts in front of us and instead tap into a deeper, more holistic understanding of reality.
Exactly in fields that require the most crucial decisions, intuitive intelligence is of higher importance than pure data-driven logic. In business strategy, creative innovation, and geopolitical decisions, intuition plays a unique and uttermost important role. It tells use when an idea feels right, even if the numbers aren’t there to back it up, or we abandon a “logical” choice because something feels off.
The best decisions aren’t made purely on logic or data. They’re made by integrating the analytical with the intuitive. AI will continue to become an ever more invaluable tool, but it’s just that – a tool. It processes the world as it is, based on observable facts and historical data. But intuition allows us to perceive the world as it could be. It taps into potential futures, subtle energetic shifts, and possibilities that aren’t visible in the data. Data can get us to the next step, but intuition lets us leap to entirely new paths. And as AI carves out logic’s territory, intuition becomes even more vital.
I don’t say we should abandon data or AI systems – far from it. Intuitive decision makers aren’t anti data. They leverage data and logic without being trapped by it. They use it as a foundation, but they use their intuition to connect the dots and sense realities which machines cannot compute. They use data as a guide but trust their intuition to make the final decision. Their intuition will navigate the uncertainties and unknowns that lie beyond the reach of logic. The best leaders will be those who can access and trust their intuition even though logic is against it.
Those who can access and act upon their intuitive intelligence will find themselves making the right decision when it matters the most—even if logic disagrees: preventing a nuclear conflict by sensing hidden motives when every visible sign points toward war, sparking a scientific breakthrough that defies conventional knowledge, designing a world-changing technology that others dismissed as impossible, or uniting adversaries to forge an unexpected, lasting peace against all rational odds.