The Qing Dynasty, Ottoman Empire, and Rome were all civilizations stuck in a grim loop.
Decline hit first: overstretch, corruption, and enemies pile up quietly.
Then comes nostalgia: past glories are hyped up – Confucian order, Suleiman’s peak, Roman strength – as a hope to be a fix for the now.
Next, technology-hype steps in: Western tools for Qing, reforms for Ottomans, Christianity for Rome – all fueled short-lived dreams of a turnaround.
But the cracks stay, and it all fell apart.
Today, the U.S. bets on AI and reshoring while chasing “greatness.”
The EU pushes green tech, a military buildup and is dreaming of a greater federation.
Also Russia – stuck in deep nostalgia of long-gone Soviet might – is betting on military tech, but seems to be already in decline’s later stages, struggling against isolation and internal decay.
Can they escape the inevitable? Well, let’s try to predict the future.
The Qing, Ottoman, and Rome empires crashed the same way.
Russia’s dying population and oil addiction could break it apart, with Siberia becoming independent, falling under the wing of a more stable neighbor: China.
The EU’s bickering and nationalist mess might split it into weak blocs, forgetting unity, like the Ottomans did.
The US, stuck in political fights and inequality, could lose control and states might go rogue like Rome’s endgame.
They are all chasing old nostalgia and shiny tech, ignoring the rot.
DOGE is the only effort to remove the rot.
If DOGE fails or brings polarization to a breaking point, the U.S. federal government will fail, leaving behind the states.
Russia will be left as a small state surrounding Moscow and Siberia as a larger and resource rich state.
What about the EU?
We could see a “Hanseatic 2.0” (Germany, Netherlands, Belgium, Baltics, Scandinavia – potentially including former Russia’s St. Petersburg) prioritizing economic power. A “Latin Axis” (Portugal, Spain, Italy) might strengthen ties with Latin America, forging a Neo-Romanesque sphere. Central Europe could come together around a Visegrád Plus, with a focus on national sovereignty. Meanwhile, the Balkans would remain a volatile periphery, vulnerable to external influence – particularly a strong Türkiye.
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