OpenAI released its new o3 models and numerous people argue that this is in fact Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) – in other words, an AI system that is on par with human intelligence. Even if o3 is not yet AGI, the emphasis now lies on “yet,” and – considering the exponential progression – we can expect AGI to arrive within months or maximum one to two years.
According to OpenAI, it only took 3 months to go from the o1 model to the o3 model. This is a 4x+ acceleration relative to previous progress. If this speed of AI advancement is maintained, it means that by the end of 2025 we will be as much ahead of o3 as o3 is ahead of GPT-3 (released in May 2020). And, after achieving AGI, the self-reinforcing feedback loop will only further accelerate exponential improvements of these AI systems.
But, most anti-intuitively, even after we have achieved AGI, it will for quite some time look as if nothing has happened. You won’t feel any change and your job and business will feel safe and untouchable. Big fallacy. We can expect that after AGI it will take many months of not 1-2 years for the real transformations to happen. Why? Because AGI in and of itself does not release value into the economy. It will be much more important to apply it. But as AGI becomes cheaper, agentic, and embedded into the world, we will see a transformation-explosion – replacing those businesses and jobs that are unprepared.
I thought a lot about the impact the announced – and soon to be released – o3 model, and the first AGI model are going to have.
To make it short: I am extremely confident that any skill or process that can be digitized will be. As a result, the majority of white-collar and skilled jobs are on track for massive disruption or elimination.
Furthermore, I think many experts and think tanks are fooling themselves by believing that humans will maintain “some edge” and work peacefully side-by-side with an AI system. I don’t think AGI will augment knowledge workers – i.e. anyone working with language, code, numbers, or any kind of specialized software – it will replace them!
So, if your job or business relies purely on standardized cognitive tasks, you are racing toward the cliff’s edge, and it is time to pivot now!
Let’s start with the worst. Businesses and jobs in which you should pivot immediately – or at least not enter as of today – include but are not limited to anything that involves sitting at a computer:
- anything with data entry or data processing (run as fast as you can!)
- anything that involves writing (copywriting, technical writing, editing, proofreading, translation)
- most coding and web development
- SAAS (won’t exist in a couple of years)
- banking (disrupted squared: AGI + Blockchain)
- accounting and auditing (won’t exist as a job in 5-10 years)
- insurance (will be disrupted)
- law (excluding high-stake litigation, negotiation, courtroom advocacy)
- any generic design, music, and video creation (graphic design, stock photography, stock videos)
- market and investment research and analysis (AI will take over 100%)
- trading, both quantitative and qualitative (don’t exit but profit now, but expect to be disrupted within 5 years)
- any middle-layer-management (project and product management)
- medical diagnostics (will be 100% AI within 5 years)
- most standardized professional / consulting services
However, I believe that in high-stakes domains (health, finance, governance), regulators and the public will demand a “human sign-off”. So if you are in accounting, auditing, law, or finance I’d recommend pivoting to a business model where the ability to anchor trust becomes a revenue source.
The question is, where should you pivot to or what business to start in 2025?
My First Principles of a Post-AGI Business Model
First, even as AI becomes infallible, human beings will still crave real, raw, direct trust relationships. People form bonds around shared experiences, especially offline ones. I believe a truly future-proof venture leverages these primal instincts that machines can never replicate at a deeply visceral level. Nevertheless, I believe it is a big mistake to assume that humans will “naturally” stick together just because we are the same species. AGI might quickly appear more reliable, less selfish than most human beings, and have emotional intelligence. So a business build upon the thesis of the “human advantage” must expertly harness and establish emotional ties, tribal belonging, and shared experiences – all intangible values that are far more delicate and complex than logic.
First Principle: Operate in the Physical World
- If your product or service can be fully digitalized and delivered via the cloud, AGI can replicate it with near-zero marginal cost
- Infuse strategic real-world constraints (logistics, location-specific interactions, physical limitations, direct relationships) that create friction and scarcity – where AI alone will struggle
Second Principle: Create Hyper Niche Human Experiences
- The broader audience, the easier it is for AI to dominate. Instead, cultivate specialized groups and subcultures with strong in-person and highly personalized experiences.
- Offer creative or spiritual elements that defy pure rational patterns and thus remain less formulaic
Third Principle: Emphasize Adaptive, Micro-Scale Partnerships
- Align with small, local, or specialized stakeholders. Use alliances with artisan suppliers, local talents, subject-matter experts, and so on.
- Avoid single points of failure; build a decentralized network that is hard for a single AI to replicate or disrupt
Fourth Principle: Embed Extreme Flexibility
- Structured, hierarchical organizations are easily out-iterated by AI that can reorganize and optimize instantly
- Cultivate fluid teams with quickly reconfigurable structures, use agile, project based collaboration that can pivot as soon AGI-based competition arises
Opportunity Vectors
With all of that in mind, there are niches that before looked unattractive, because less scalable, that today offer massive opportunities – let’s call them opportunity vectors.
The first opportunity vector I have already touched upon:
- Trust and Validation Services: Humans verifying or certifying that a certain AI outcome is ethically or legally sound – while irrational, it is exactly what humans will insist on, particularly where liability is high (medicine, finance, law, infrastructure)
- Frontier Sectors with Regulatory and Ethical Friction: Think of markets where AI will accelerate R&D but human oversight, relationship management, and accountability remain essential: genetic engineering, biotech, advanced materials, quantum computing, etc.
The second opportunity vector focuses on the human edge:
- Experience & Community: Live festivals, immersive events, niche retreats, or spiritual explorations – basically any scenario in which emotional energy and a human experience is the core product
- Rare Craftsmanship & Creative Quirks: Think of hyper-personalized items, physical artwork, artisanal or hands-on creations. Items that carry an inherent uniqueness or intangible meaning that an AI might replicate in design, but can’t replicate in “heritage” or provenance.
Risk Tactics
Overall, the best insurance is fostering a dynamic brand and a loyal community that invests personally and emotionally in you. People will buy from those whose values they trust. If you stand for something real, you create an emotional bond that AI can’t break. I’m not talking about superficial corporate social responsibility (nobody cares) but about authenticity that resonates on a near-spiritual level.
As you build your business, erect an ethical moat by providing “failsafe” services where your human personal liability and your brand acts as a shield for AI decisions. This creates trust and differentiation among anonymous pure-AGI play businesses.
Seek and create small, specialized, local, or digital micro-monopolies – areas too tiny or fractal for the “big AI players” to devote immediate resources to. Over time, multiply these micro-monopolies by rolling them up under one trusted brand.
Furthermore, don’t avoid AI. You cannot out-AI the AI. So as you build a business on the human edge moat, you should still harness AI to do 90% of the repetitive and analytic tasks – this frees your human capital to build human relationships, solve ambiguous problem, or invent new offerings.
Bet on What Makes Us Human
To summarize, AI is logical, combinatorial intelligence. The advancements in AI will commoditize logic and disrupt any job and business that is mainly build upon logic as capital. Human – on the other hand – is authenticity. What makes human human and your brand authentic are elements of chaos, empathy, spontaneity. In this context, human is fostering embodied, emotional, culturally contextual, physically immersive experiences. Anything that requires raw creativity, emotional intelligence, local presence, or unique personal relationships will be more AI resilient.
Therefore, a Post-AGI business must involve:
- Tangibility: Physical goods, spaces, unique craftsmanship
- Human Connection: Emotional, face-to-face, improvisational experiences
- Comprehensive Problem Solving: Complex negotiations, messy real-world situations, diverse stakeholder management
The inverse list of AGI proof industries involve some or multiple aspects of that:
- Physical, In-Person, Human-Intensive Services
- Healthcare: Nursing, Physical therapy, Hands-on caregiving
- Skilled trades & craftsmanship
- High-Level Strategy & Complex Leadership
- Diplomacy, Negotiation, Trust building
- Visionary entrepreneurship
- Deep Emotional / Experiential Offerings
- Group experiences, retreats, spiritual or therapeutic gatherings
- Artistic expression that thrives on “imperfection”, physical presence, or spontaneous creativity
- Infrastructure for AGI
- Human-based auditing/verification
- Physical data center operations & advanced hardware
- Application and embedment of AI in the forms of AGI agents, algorithmic improvements, etc. to make it suitable for everyday tasks and workflow
The real differentiator is whether a business is anchored in the physical world’s complexity, emotional trust, or intangible brand relationships. Everything pure data-driven or standardized is on the chopping block – imminently.
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