Marius Schober

Progress Through Consciousness

Category: Posts

  • Before AGI: The Epistemic Collapse

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    3 min read

    More than 50% of recently published website texts are now written by AI. This means that from today forward, the majority of all published texts is already synthetic. The same will hold true for any other form of content: images, video, and audio. In and of itself, AI written texts shouldn’t be such a large issue. The problem is not texts written by AI, but that we have simultaneously crossed a point where you can reliably distinguish AI-generated content from human content. I have a strong opinion that AI should sound like AI, I also think that AI chatbots should be apparent as such, and that AI-generated images and videos should have deeply embedded watermarks. This is also why I believe parts of the EU AI Act and the California AI Transparency Act are net-positive for humanity. But why do I believe so?

    The most pressing issue with AI generated content is much less about capability or alignment of AI models, but the collapse of epistemic commons before we even arrive at general-intelligent or super-intelligent AI models. Here is what I mean:

    Most text is now AI-generated, and within months the same will be true for video, images, and audio. When creation costs and efforts collapse to zero, two things vanish simultaneously: trust and meaning.

    We can no longer casually trust what we see. Every text, every video, every expert opinion becomes suspect. As social primates evolved to trust patterns and authorities, we are losing the ability to distinguish signal from noise at the exact moment we need it most.

    Perhaps the deeper crisis isn’t skepticism but meaning collapse. Scarcity and effort have always been core to how humans assign value and significance. When infinite content can be generated instantly and automated for any purpose, these anchors disappear.

    Most look at this as primarily economic disruption, but perhaps it is much more psychological and civilizational because we are eroding the foundations of shared reality before we have built alternatives.

    Then there is this slippery slope: From now on, humans will increasingly interact with and read texts written by AI systems trained on AI-generated texts. Again, soon it is also photos, videos, audio. This training-loop has (at least) the potential to create a cultural drift in directions yet unpredictable. One thing we can be quite certain about is that our human values are already being reshaped by AI systems in ways we cannot track. This in turn makes the question of “alignment” both: more important and at the same time secondary.

    The most pressing risk of human civilization is therefore not hypothesizing a possibly “misaligned” superintelligence, but rather the risk of arriving there divided – socially and epistemically.

    What must be done is certainly harder than alignment of AI systems?

    • Rebuilding trusted information infrastructure
    • Creating new forms of verifiable authenticity
    • Developing cultural “antibodies” to synthetic manipulation
    • Building meaning-making structures that aren’t dependent on scarcity or effort
    • Preserving and strengthening human coordination capacity
    • Etc.

    This is harder than “alignment”, because the more we look at these to-dos from a federal or global perspective, the more impossible they will become.

    Now, to move from the theoretical to the practical: Who are the 5 to 150 people you can still genuinely trust and coordinate with? Because everything else either emerges from functional groups, or it won’t emerge at all.

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  • Thoughts on AI “Alignment”

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    4 min read

    When looking at AI, people are fixated on surface-level effects: economic disruption (jobs disappearing), alignment risks (AI going rogue), or ethical dilemmas (bias of LLMs). While those are all real, they also seem to be distractions from the real shift. The current conversations are not about whether we achieve AGI anymore but about when – some say 10 years, I say it’s basically already here (it all depends on the definition of the term really). By definition, AGI will match and then surpass human intelligence in every single domain: strategic, creative, you name it. Once that threshold is crossed (and it’s closer than many admit), a feedback loop kicks in. AI designs better AI, which designs even better AI, ad infinitum.

    Because we are not yet there, we debate AI as a tool. But as soon we cross that threshold, AI will predict, simulate, and optimize anything logic-based with absolute precision that human input is unnecessary or perhaps counterproductive. Humans – and that means governments, corporations, and individuals – will outsource everything, from policy to life choices, because AI will present the best logical and data-backed option. And because it is so much better in logic, you stop questioning it. The “alignment” problem is therefore ultimately less about making AI safe for humans, but about preparing humans to accept their irrelevance in logical intelligence and – in my opinion – transitioning (or better: re-connecting) them to their intuitive intelligence. If we fail at this, the majority of humans will experience free will only as an illusion.

    We humans derive meaning from struggle, achievement, and social bonds. Within the next 10 to 20 years, we won’t need to struggle to achieve anymore. Achievement will be handed out (or withheld) by systems we cannot understand. What is left are social bonds. But is that really the case? We already see AI-mediated interactions replacing genuine connections (whether emails, eulogies, or even virtual AI companions). If we do not pay attention and re-connect with other humans (our tribes), we risk real psychological devastation at scale.

    If AI is centralized, it will be operated by an elite (that’s at least the current trend). Not only will this elite gain god-like power, but it will form another elite class: humans who are augmented by superintelligence through direct neural interfaces or exclusive AI enhancements. What about the rest? An underclass kept alive by a universal-basic-whatever, but without purpose or power?

    The problem really is: when we cross that threshold, it won’t be fixable. We better collectively act now, or the world will be run by a handful of super-enhanced humans and their AI overlords.

    In 2025 these thoughts will read like speculation. But based on my observations of how the majority of humans started using and adopting AI, the trajectory seems obvious (to me). AI is optimizing for efficiency. Companies adopting it as well. Individuals must – or they are no longer competitive. What is the antidote? I am divided. I don’t believe AI must lead to such dystopia. I am much more convinced that it is our best shot to achieve utopia. But there is a very thin line in-between them: us humans. In how we collectively act. And acting is much (!) less about technological adaptation (from becoming AI “experts” to Neuralink cyborgization) and indefinitely more about re-connecting to what makes us uniquely human: our consciousness, our connection to God, our one Creator, and our unity. Meaning will come from non-competitive pursuits, AI-alignment from balancing logic with consciousness, and happiness from real, deep, social human connections. Intelligent machines – no matter how superintelligent they turn out – can never be conscious. Perhaps it is a wake-up call: we lost our spiritual connection to consciousness – and we must re-connect.

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  • The Era of Information Overload

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    2 min read

    One of the biggest problems of humanity is information overload.

    Think about how we used to get information just 50 years ago. We had to deliberately search for them.

    We had to engage in conversations, go to the library or bookshop to search relevant books or buy a newspaper.

    The internet gave birth to niche forums, and we got search engines which allowed us to find blogs and articles.

    Until social media arrived, it was a careful quest for information.

    Social media turned it around. Instead of searching for information, we now get bombarded with news, ideas, opinions – from anyone around the world, nonstop 24/7.

    With ChatGPT, we got a tool that not only bombarded us with human created information, we can now basically create our own information, endlessly.

    The worst: People now flood the internet and social platforms with content they didn’t even write themselves.

    What does this mean?

    It is now easier and cheaper than ever to access information. Which is great!

    But it is harder than ever to focus on what really matters to us.

    The now endless stream of information siphons our energy, distracting us from the intentional paths we truly wish to pursue.

    I think the best way to consume information consciously is to first have a clear picture of what we want to understand and know, and then to dedicate time for deep-reading and deep-writing.

    That means, not only searching for quick information on what truly interests you – but choosing one subject to study, research, and then write your own essay on it.

    Whether you publish that essay or not is irrelevant.

    Merely writing it keeps your thinking-ability alive.

    The important thing is to do it consciously.

    Use AI only as a research partner – not a ghostwriter.

    Pick what you want to master. Then dedicate time to actually master it – not only consume endless information on whatever the world decides is important now.

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  • The First Principles of a Post-AGI Business

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    8 min read

    OpenAI released its new o3 models and numerous people argue that this is in fact Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) – in other words, an AI system that is on par with human intelligence. Even if o3 is not yet AGI, the emphasis now lies on “yet,” and – considering the exponential progression – we can expect AGI to arrive within months or maximum one to two years.

    According to OpenAI, it only took 3 months to go from the o1 model to the o3 model. This is a 4x+ acceleration relative to previous progress. If this speed of AI advancement is maintained, it means that by the end of 2025 we will be as much ahead of o3 as o3 is ahead of GPT-3 (released in May 2020). And, after achieving AGI, the self-reinforcing feedback loop will only further accelerate exponential improvements of these AI systems.

    But, most anti-intuitively, even after we have achieved AGI, it will for quite some time look as if nothing has happened. You won’t feel any change and your job and business will feel safe and untouchable. Big fallacy. We can expect that after AGI it will take many months of not 1-2 years for the real transformations to happen. Why? Because AGI in and of itself does not release value into the economy. It will be much more important to apply it. But as AGI becomes cheaper, agentic, and embedded into the world, we will see a transformation-explosion – replacing those businesses and jobs that are unprepared.

    I thought a lot about the impact the announced – and soon to be released – o3 model, and the first AGI model are going to have.

    To make it short: I am extremely confident that any skill or process that can be digitized will be. As a result, the majority of white-collar and skilled jobs are on track for massive disruption or elimination.

    Furthermore, I think many experts and think tanks are fooling themselves by believing that humans will maintain “some edge” and work peacefully side-by-side with an AI system. I don’t think AGI will augment knowledge workers – i.e. anyone working with language, code, numbers, or any kind of specialized software – it will replace them!

    So, if your job or business relies purely on standardized cognitive tasks, you are racing toward the cliff’s edge, and it is time to pivot now!

    Let’s start with the worst. Businesses and jobs in which you should pivot immediately – or at least not enter as of today – include but are not limited to anything that involves sitting at a computer:

    • anything with data entry or data processing (run as fast as you can!)
    • anything that involves writing (copywriting, technical writing, editing, proofreading, translation)
    • most coding and web development
    • SAAS (won’t exist in a couple of years)
    • banking (disrupted squared: AGI + Blockchain)
    • accounting and auditing (won’t exist as a job in 5-10 years)
    • insurance (will be disrupted)
    • law (excluding high-stake litigation, negotiation, courtroom advocacy)
    • any generic design, music, and video creation (graphic design, stock photography, stock videos)
    • market and investment research and analysis (AI will take over 100%)
    • trading, both quantitative and qualitative (don’t exit but profit now, but expect to be disrupted within 5 years)
    • any middle-layer-management (project and product management)
    • medical diagnostics (will be 100% AI within 5 years)
    • most standardized professional / consulting services

    However, I believe that in high-stakes domains (health, finance, governance), regulators and the public will demand a “human sign-off”. So if you are in accounting, auditing, law, or finance I’d recommend pivoting to a business model where the ability to anchor trust becomes a revenue source.

    The question is, where should you pivot to or what business to start in 2025?

    My First Principles of a Post-AGI Business Model

    First, even as AI becomes infallible, human beings will still crave real, raw, direct trust relationships. People form bonds around shared experiences, especially offline ones. I believe a truly future-proof venture leverages these primal instincts that machines can never replicate at a deeply visceral level. Nevertheless, I believe it is a big mistake to assume that humans will “naturally” stick together just because we are the same species. AGI might quickly appear more reliable, less selfish than most human beings, and have emotional intelligence. So a business build upon the thesis of the “human advantage” must expertly harness and establish emotional ties, tribal belonging, and shared experiences – all intangible values that are far more delicate and complex than logic.

    First Principle: Operate in the Physical World

    • If your product or service can be fully digitalized and delivered via the cloud, AGI can replicate it with near-zero marginal cost
    • Infuse strategic real-world constraints (logistics, location-specific interactions, physical limitations, direct relationships) that create friction and scarcity – where AI alone will struggle

    Second Principle: Create Hyper Niche Human Experiences

    • The broader audience, the easier it is for AI to dominate. Instead, cultivate specialized groups and subcultures with strong in-person and highly personalized experiences.
    • Offer creative or spiritual elements that defy pure rational patterns and thus remain less formulaic

    Third Principle: Emphasize Adaptive, Micro-Scale Partnerships

    • Align with small, local, or specialized stakeholders. Use alliances with artisan suppliers, local talents, subject-matter experts, and so on.
    • Avoid single points of failure; build a decentralized network that is hard for a single AI to replicate or disrupt

    Fourth Principle: Embed Extreme Flexibility

    • Structured, hierarchical organizations are easily out-iterated by AI that can reorganize and optimize instantly
    • Cultivate fluid teams with quickly reconfigurable structures, use agile, project based collaboration that can pivot as soon AGI-based competition arises

    Opportunity Vectors

    With all of that in mind, there are niches that before looked unattractive, because less scalable, that today offer massive opportunities – let’s call them opportunity vectors.

    The first opportunity vector I have already touched upon:

    • Trust and Validation Services: Humans verifying or certifying that a certain AI outcome is ethically or legally sound – while irrational, it is exactly what humans will insist on, particularly where liability is high (medicine, finance, law, infrastructure)
    • Frontier Sectors with Regulatory and Ethical Friction: Think of markets where AI will accelerate R&D but human oversight, relationship management, and accountability remain essential: genetic engineering, biotech, advanced materials, quantum computing, etc.

    The second opportunity vector focuses on the human edge:

    • Experience & Community: Live festivals, immersive events, niche retreats, or spiritual explorations – basically any scenario in which emotional energy and a human experience is the core product
    • Rare Craftsmanship & Creative Quirks: Think of hyper-personalized items, physical artwork, artisanal or hands-on creations. Items that carry an inherent uniqueness or intangible meaning that an AI might replicate in design, but can’t replicate in “heritage” or provenance.

    Risk Tactics

    Overall, the best insurance is fostering a dynamic brand and a loyal community that invests personally and emotionally in you. People will buy from those whose values they trust. If you stand for something real, you create an emotional bond that AI can’t break. I’m not talking about superficial corporate social responsibility (nobody cares) but about authenticity that resonates on a near-spiritual level.

    As you build your business, erect an ethical moat by providing “failsafe” services where your human personal liability and your brand acts as a shield for AI decisions. This creates trust and differentiation among anonymous pure-AGI play businesses.

    Seek and create small, specialized, local, or digital micro-monopolies – areas too tiny or fractal for the “big AI players” to devote immediate resources to. Over time, multiply these micro-monopolies by rolling them up under one trusted brand.

    Furthermore, don’t avoid AI. You cannot out-AI the AI. So as you build a business on the human edge moat, you should still harness AI to do 90% of the repetitive and analytic tasks – this frees your human capital to build human relationships, solve ambiguous problem, or invent new offerings.

    Bet on What Makes Us Human

    To summarize, AI is logical, combinatorial intelligence. The advancements in AI will commoditize logic and disrupt any job and business that is mainly build upon logic as capital. Human – on the other hand – is authenticity. What makes human human and your brand authentic are elements of chaos, empathy, spontaneity. In this context, human is fostering embodied, emotional, culturally contextual, physically immersive experiences. Anything that requires raw creativity, emotional intelligence, local presence, or unique personal relationships will be more AI resilient.

    Therefore, a Post-AGI business must involve:

    1. Tangibility: Physical goods, spaces, unique craftsmanship
    2. Human Connection: Emotional, face-to-face, improvisational experiences
    3. Comprehensive Problem Solving: Complex negotiations, messy real-world situations, diverse stakeholder management

    The inverse list of AGI proof industries involve some or multiple aspects of that:

    • Physical, In-Person, Human-Intensive Services
      • Healthcare: Nursing, Physical therapy, Hands-on caregiving
      • Skilled trades & craftsmanship
    • High-Level Strategy & Complex Leadership
      • Diplomacy, Negotiation, Trust building
      • Visionary entrepreneurship
    • Deep Emotional / Experiential Offerings
      • Group experiences, retreats, spiritual or therapeutic gatherings
      • Artistic expression that thrives on “imperfection”, physical presence, or spontaneous creativity
    • Infrastructure for AGI
      • Human-based auditing/verification
      • Physical data center operations & advanced hardware
      • Application and embedment of AI in the forms of AGI agents, algorithmic improvements, etc. to make it suitable for everyday tasks and workflow

    The real differentiator is whether a business is anchored in the physical world’s complexity, emotional trust, or intangible brand relationships. Everything pure data-driven or standardized is on the chopping block – imminently.

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  • AI-to-AI Communication

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    1 min read

    Nowadays, most emails I receive – including technical and legal ones – are undoubtedly written by ChatGPT. Which I’m okay with – but I find it rather funny that I now have to read what an AI has written only to input the context myself into my AI system. We are effectively constraining AI systems to communicate via human intermediaries – which is a laughably stupid and cognitively inefficient approach.

    I think it is wasted energy to make AIs even better at mimicking human communication – this energy is better used in developing AI-to-AI communication protocols that bypass human language entirely. Instead of exchanging emails written in human language, AIs should directly exchange action items, structured data, intent vectors, or probabilistic models. How valuable is it really in making AI communication more human-readable? I believe it is about freeing AIs to communicate in their “native language” while humans simply set high-level objectives and constraints. No latency, no information loss, no mental drainage, more time for actual human communication and interaction.

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  • The Supplement Industry

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    4 min read

    The supplement industry is a study in contrasts. On one end of the spectrum, you have standardized mass-market products, like the multivitamins lining grocery store shelves. On the other, you have the hyper-competitive world of fitness supplements, where brands vie for attention with protein powders, amino acids, and creatine formulas. Online, the landscape is even more fragmented, with countless niche brands peddling proprietary blends and miracle formulas. And at the top of the pyramid, there are the medical-grade supplements, backed by scientific studies and sold at premium prices in pharmacies.

    But amidst this dizzying array of options, two critical factors are often conspicuously absent: transparency and fair pricing. In the supplement world, markups of 50 to 500 percent are not just common – they’re the norm. And when it comes to the quality and sourcing of ingredients, most consumers are left in the dark.

    The Murky Supply Chain

    The truth is, the vast majority of supplement brands are just that – brands. They might have a catchy name, a slick website, and an army of influencers under contract but they’re not actually manufacturing the products they sell. Instead, the majority of brands outsource production to contract manufacturers, who are responsible for sourcing ingredients, mixing formulas, and packaging the final product.

    But even these contract manufacturers usually don’t have direct relationships with ingredient suppliers. They usually buy from wholesalers, who in themselves import from other wholesalers from locations like Asia. It’s a game of trade, with each player adding their own markup along the way.

    By the time a supplement reaches the consumer, it may have passed through three to five different entities, each taking their cut. The end result? Consumers pay inflated prices, without any real insight into what they’re actually getting.

    The Quality Conundrum

    Transparency around quality is another major issue in the supplement space. While standardized multivitamins from reputable pharmaceutical companies generally adhere to strict quality control standards, the same can’t be said for many of the products sold online.

    To better understand the landscape, we can visualize the supplement market as a quadrant, with quality transparency on one axis and price on the other:

    • High Quality Transparency, Very High Price: This quadrant includes medical-grade supplements sold in pharmacies and premium brands that invest in extensive third-party testing and ingredient traceability.
    • High Quality Transparency, Medium Price: Here, we find standardized multivitamins from well-known pharmaceutical companies.
    • Low Quality Transparency, High Price: This is where many niche online supplement brands and fitness-focused brands reside, often selling proprietary formulas at high prices without clear sourcing information.
    • Low Quality Transparency, Low Price: Generic store-brand supplements and cheap mass-market fitness products fall into this category, offering minimal information on sourcing or quality control.

    The Opportunity: Radical Transparency at Fair Prices

    While the bulk of supplement sales (in terms of quantity) occur in the standardized multivitamin segment, the brands commanding the highest margins are often those with low transparency and high prices. They’ve perfected the art of marketing, using influencers to build trust without actually providing full transparency.

    Herein lies the opportunity: a supplement brand built on the principles of radical transparency and fair pricing. By vertically integrating the supply chain – cultivating raw ingredients, manufacturing in-house, and selling directly to consumers – it’s possible to dramatically reduce costs while providing unparalleled clarity around sourcing and quality.

    The potential for price disruption is significant. By eliminating multiple layers of middlemen and excessive markups, prices could potentially be reduced by 65 to 80 percent compared to current retail averages. This would be achieved through a transparent cost-plus pricing model, with a reasonable markup of 20 to 30 percent to sustain operations.

    A Paradigm Shift

    At its core, this business model is about stripping away the extraneous and focusing on what matters: high-quality supplements at fair prices, with complete transparency. I believe consumers shouldn’t have to choose between quality, affordability, scientificity, and ethical sourcing – they can have all four.

    In many ways, it’s a return to first principles. By questioning the assumptions that have long governed the industry – that complexity is necessary, that opacity is acceptable, that high prices are inevitable – we can envision a new paradigm. One where simplicity, transparency, and accessibility are the driving forces.

    My vision is to build such a fully-integrated purpose-driven supplement company that embodies the principles I hold dear: radical transparency, fair prices, and unwavering integrity. By owning every step of the process, from seed to shelf, we can redefine what’s possible in this industry. I believe that when you put people and principles first, success follows.

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  • Secrets of the UFO

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    5 min read

    “Secrets of the UFO” is one of the few books that if you read it open-mindedly, it will change your view of the world and universe forever. It is described as an arrangement of condensed and edited received communications from the UFOs and extraterrestrials. And it starts with three chapters summarizing over 25 years of study of the UFO phenomenon and 14 years of study of the “contactee riddle” by the author Don Elkins.

    In this ongoing and updating post, I share my book notes, highlights, and thoughts as I work through the book.

    Chapter 1: A Very Strange Phenomenon

    The book starts by stating that the book is going to be “either nonsense or the most centrally important thing you could possibly learn”. After reading it, I confirm this statement. If you read the book open-mindedly, you’ll not ask yourself whether UFOs exist, but rather WHO they are and WHY they are visiting our consciousness here on earth.

    If we assume the described UFO phenomenons are real, it opens an immense view onto the world and the universe, as it renders many scientific facts we nowadays believe to be true to be false or at least incomplete.

    Studying and understanding UFOs and the underlying technologies may validly be “the most important endeavor which we can undertake.”

    UFOs & Meteoroids

    To put our possibly naive assumption into perspective, the author gives the example of Dr. James E. McDonald, who explained to the U.S. congress in 1968:

    Meteors were once described as “stones falling from the sky” and anyone who curiously questioned this narrative were disregarded as stupid peasants. Well, until one researcher took it seriously and then discovered meteoritics.

    With UFOs, we are now in a “very similar situation in science”. We ignore and don’t take UFO sightings seriously, because it makes no sense from our current scientific understanding of the universe.

    UFOs defy any explanation possible with our current science and understanding of physics.

    We have to understand that our current “status quo” of science may be false or at least incomplete.

    Scientific Ridicule

    Anyone who dares to challenge the current status quo is subject to ridicule. In terms of understanding UFOs, it started in the late 1940s and 50s when the US Air Force – at that time in a Cold War with the Soviet Union – was mystified by UFO sightings. Because it was unexplainable and the technology of UFOs indescribable superior to the military technology the Air Force had access to, they decided it was better to call UFOs a ridiculous fantasy.

    But calling it a stupid fantasy doesn’t help anyone. Nothing constructive is achieved by doing so.

    As the author underlines: “Ridicule is not part of the scientific method, and people should not be taught it is.”

    Unfortunately, this “ridicule” is still in effect today, 47 years after the book was first published.

    Technological Breakthroughs

    To put it into perspective, we can think about any technology we now accept as normal in our present life. Any technology would have been considered a wild and absurd impossibility a scant 100 years ago.

    So can this not also be true for UFO technology?

    Yes.

    The question then is: How many millennia ahead of us are UFO technologies?

    Note: Later chapters will give plenty of descriptions of what these UFO technologies are capable of.

    Beyond the Present Level of Reality

    So the question is: What is holding us back from asking questions which go beyond our current understanding of reality.

    One problem is the current scientific system, which is set up to only investigate the present level of reality within our technological and scientific nexus of thought.

    Or as the author says: “The Jesus of thinking or technology which underlies the UFO manifestations may not have any close connection to our present Earthman’s philosophy of reality”

    And I agree with the author in this.

    Today, the moment we ask questions and venture into the unknown to investigate phenomena beyond our current established framework of thought, what we today believe to be “facts”, we encounter resistance.

    Anything that goes beyond the current technological nexus is dismissed as impossible. And I think it is part of human nature. We simply cannot grasp exponential technological improvements.

    But if we really want to see technological breakthroughs on the level of UFO technologies, which we can observe, science, politics, entrepreneurs (we all) must open ourselves up to the supernatural and the “impossible”. Without being open-minded, we will not make an evolutionary leap forward.

    Today these topics are energy or quantum healing, zero-point energy devices, the enigmatic technologies of UFOs – described later – the vast landscape of consciousness, or the transformative effects of psychedelics (which itself is a thick book we don’t understand and cannot explain).

    The next chapters of scientific discovery await in the prospects of telepathy, real human longevity, the frontiers of artificial superintelligence, the intricate art of matter manipulation, the theories of interdimensional travel, and the concepts of antigravity and warp drive technologies.

    The book” Secrets of the UFO” is an eye-opener to allow us to leave the rigid confines of current science and encourages us to find an elevated state of consciousness to ultimately find answers to what is now called the impossible.

    UFO Sightings

    What follows are 15 cases of UFO sightings…

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  • 2024 Portfolios for »The Value Dividend Strategy«

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    4 min read

    Today is Monday, 1st January 2024 and I created two new Value Dividend Portfolios. One portfolio representing undervalued stocks with no dividend payment and the second portfolio undervalued stocks with significantly high dividend payments.

    If you want to learn more on how I discovered this strategy and how the portfolios were created, you can read my book online or order a copy from amazon.com.

    2024 Portfolios

    Both portfolios focus solely on the U.S. market and have the following in common:

    • Piotroski F-score of ≥ 6.00
    • Altman Z-score of ≥ 3.00
    • Equity Ratio of ≥ 50.00%

    The first portfolio paying no dividends focuses on stocks with:

    • P/E ratio of ≤ 10
    • Dividend yield of 0%

    The second portfolio paying significant dividends focuses on stocks with:

    • P/E ratio of ≤ 7
    • Dividend yield ≥ 2.9%

    1. 2024 No Dividend Portfolio

    »The Value Dividend Strategy« portfolio paying no dividends consists in total of 7 stocks:

    1. Gulfport Energy Corp GPOR with a current price of $133.20
    2. SurgePays Inc. SURG with a current price of $6.45
    3. MasterCraft Boat Holdings Inc. MCFT with a current price of $22.64
    4. Arcturus Therapeutics Holdings Inc. ARCT with a current price of $31.53
    5. Atkore Inc. ATKR with a current price of $160.00
    6. Profire Energy Inc. PFIE with a current price of $1.81
    7. Livent Corp LTHM with a current price of $17.98

    2. 2024 High Dividend Portfolio

    »The Value Dividend Strategy« portfolio paying significantly high dividends consists in total of 12 stocks:

    1. ClearOne Inc. CLRO with a current price of $1.08
    2. Chesapeake Energy Corp CHK with a current price of $76.94
    3. Adams Natural Resources Fund Inc. PEO with a current price of $20.63
    4. PhenixFIN Corp PFX with a current price of $42.25
    5. Alliance Resource Partners L.P. ARLP with a current price of $21.18
    6. Cal-Maine Foods Inc. CALM with a current price of $57.39
    7. Stifel Financial Corp 5. SFB with a current price of $20.55
    8. PHX Minerals Inc. PHX with a current price of $3.22
    9. HF Sinclair Corp DINO with a current price of $55.57
    10. Medifast Inc. MED with a current price of $67.22
    11. BlackRock Enhanced Capital and Income Fund Inc. CII with a current price of $19.00
    12. Mesa Royalty Trust MTR with a current price of $13.20

    Outlook

    Both portfolios have been created solely by stock screening. As shown in »The Value Dividend Strategy«, these portfolios have performed exceptionally fine historically. I highlighted the most promising companies in bold.

    This time I’ll look into each company in detail. I will perform a proper due diligence and valuation of each stock to create a third »The Value Dividend Strategy« portfolio with the aim of identifying winners while excluding any company raising a red flag. I might also write deep dives on the most promising stocks.

    Subscribe to this newsletter if you wish to receive this portfolio and any deep dives I might write!

    Subscribe now

    If you want to learn more on how I discovered this strategy and how the portfolios were created, you can read my book online or order a copy from amazon.com.

    Legal Disclaimer

    The content provided in this newsletter is for informational purposes only. The information, analysis, and opinions expressed herein are solely those of Marius Schober and do not represent, reflect or express the views of any other person or entity.

    This newsletter does not constitute investment advice, financial advice, trading advice, or any other sort of advice, and you should not treat any of the newsletter’s content as such. Marius Schober does not recommend that any securities, transactions, or investment strategies mentioned in this newsletter are suitable for any specific person.

    The information provided in this newsletter is obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but Marius Schober does not guarantee its completeness or accuracy, or warrant its completeness or accuracy. Readers are urged to consult with their own independent financial advisors with respect to any investment.

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  • Deutschland und der Zusammenbruch der Eurozone

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    2 min read

    Die deutsche Wirtschaft kollabiert in einem noch nie dagewesenen Tempo. Investoren haben sich dieser Tatsache noch nicht bewusst werden können. Sobald sie dies tun, könnte es zu einer massiven Kapitalflucht aus der Eurozone kommen.

    Diese Situation stellt eine ernsthafte Bedrohung für die Stabilität der Euro-Währung und der EU selbst dar. Wir haben das Problem selbst verschuldet. In den letzten zehn Jahren haben die deutschen Wähler mit überwältigender Mehrheit die derzeitige Politik sowohl auf Bundes- als auch auf Landesebene unterstützt und gewählt. Deutschland erntet im Wesentlichen, was es durch demokratische Entscheidungen gesät hat.

    Die Folgen einer Deindustrialisierung Deutschlands werden auf dem ganzen Kontinent zu spüren sein. Es entsteht ein perfekter Sturm, der nicht nur unser Land selbst betrifft, sondern auch ganz Europa ins Wanken bringen wird, da der Euro von der Wirtschaftsleistung und dem Rating Deutschlands abhängt. Deutschland ist nicht nur die größte Volkswirtschaft Europas, sondern zugleich auch sein wirtschaftliches Zentrum, das als größter Handelspartner und als Investor in vielen Ländern Europas die verschiedenen Volkswirtschaften miteinander verbindet.

    Die Zukunft Europas hängt vom hausgemachten Niedergang einer einst mächtigen Wirtschaftsmacht ab. Ich frage mich, warum die anderen europäischen Staaten, von Frankreich über Italien bis Spanien, nicht mehr Druck auf Deutschland ausüben.

    Irgendwann werden die Deutschen aufwachen und die Situation erkennen. Aber ich bin skeptisch, dass sich sofort etwas ändert. Wenn es in der Bevölkerung ein echtes Bedauern gäbe, würde sich das bei künftigen Wahlen zeigen. Der Niedergang des Landes wird sich wahrscheinlich fortsetzen, solange die öffentliche Verleugnung anhält.

    Irgendwann werden die Deutschen aufwachen und die Situation erkennen. Aber ich bin skeptisch, dass sich dies rasch ändern wird. Wenn es in der Bevölkerung ein echtes Bewusstsein für die Situation gäbe, würde sich dies bei künftigen Wahlen zeigen. Der Niedergang des Landes wird sich wahrscheinlich fortsetzen, solange die öffentliche Verdrängung anhält.

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  • BRICS Gold Backed Currency

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    7 min read

    In a world dominated by financial dynamism, the unexpected can sometimes occur. The BRICS nations (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa), in a bid to recalibrate the global economic order, recently unveiled speculations around launching a common currency backed by gold, causing ripples of apprehension and excitement across the global markets. The implications of this decision would be vast and could pose a significant challenge to the longstanding dominance of the US dollar – but how realistic is it really?

    The ambition of an alternative currency backed by gold shows striking similarities to the post-World War II Bretton Woods accord, which enabled the U.S. dollar to become the global reserve currency. In 1944, as the world war was beginning to ebb, 44 allied nations convened in the sylvan setting of Bretton Woods, a small town in New Hampshire. Here, in an epoch-making agreement, they forged the post-war monetary order which ultimately installed the U.S. dollar as the world’s leading reserve currency. A major feature of the Bretton Woods system was that the U.S. dollar and every currency pegged to the dollar, was convertible into gold at $35 per ounce. This created trust through gold, underscored by America’s considerable repository of gold reserves.

    The Bretton Woods system breathed its last in 1971 when the United States forsook its dollar-to-gold conversions. Ever since, the U.S. dollar hegemony endured, now backed by the undeniable political and economic muscles of the United States.

    Until today, the US dollar’s pervasive ubiquity in the global financial system was a testament to its resilience and reliability. According to SWIFT, the dollar accounts for around 42% of currency transactions, with the Euro accounting for roughly 32% leaving behind the Chinese yuan with < 2 percent. Furthermore, the International Monetary Fund estimates that nearly 59% of global central bank reserves are held in dollars.

    This prominence of the US dollar as the world’s reserve currency has long been a thorn in the side of nations seeking to assert their influence on the global stage. Soon, BRICS countries will gather in Johannesburg, where the assembled ministers and representatives will discourse about ending this US dominance through a common currency and thus reveling in their aspirations for a new economic order. This endeavor to construct a counter-narrative to the post-World War II rules-based world order was prompted in no small part by the sanctions on Russian foreign exchange and gold reserves following the invasion of Ukraine.

    Much like Bretton Woods’ design cemented the dollar as the fulcrum of the world economy, the BRICS consortium may be maneuvering to disrupt this long-standing status quo by themselves launching a currency backed by the age-old surety of gold. But the track ahead appears to be riddled with challenges that make this endeavor less a conquest and more a quixotic pursuit.

    While the BRICS coalition may envisage a common currency – backed, as per Russian suggestion, by gold as per a Russian – their individual national interests are far too divergent to enable such unity.

    The proposal of a single central bank, possibly located in Shanghai, would undoubtedly raise alarm bells, particularly in India. Sino-Indian border tensions and differing strategic interests pose significant barriers to the kind of deep integration necessary for a shared currency. That this discord is real was shown by India’s External Affairs Minister who quickly clarified that India had no plans for a BRICS currency. A liberal democracy-backed currency cannot simply be replaced by a concept dominated by a totalitarian state with capital controls. It is a proposition that defies pragmatism.

    Historical precedence provides a further sobering perspective. OPEC as not able to establish a petro-currency and the struggles of the South American “sur” currency underline the inherent difficulties in rallying geographically disparate nations around a common financial cause.

    Also, China itself, the most formidable of the BRICS economies, struggles to extend the influence of its yuan even within Asia, outside trade-linked finance. Its share in global transactions is a mere 2%.

    The aspiration to supplant the dollar with a new BRICS currency would be a quantum leap, requiring not only economic might but also unprecedented collaboration, mutual trust, and legal harmonizing among these so diverse nations.

    The BRICS nations are undoubtedly influential, and their currency proposal warrants attention, but the hurdles for success are high. As it stands, the likelihood of them dethroning King Dollar in the near term appears decidedly slim, given the economic, political, and logistical challenges they face. However, in the shifting sands of global politics and economics, it would be imprudent to discount the potential for change altogether. So, what if?

    When we gaze upon the current constellation of global economies and geopolitics, a gold-backed BRICS currency shines brightly as a tantalizing prospect. The appeal of a gold-backed currency hinges in its potential stability. It presents a captivating diversification tool which might provide a bulwark against inflation, geopolitical uncertainties, and U.S. self-interests that plague the dollar. However, while gold has served as a steadfast store of value over centuries, the worth of a gold-backed currency would ultimately remain tethered to the fiscal policies of the BRICS nations. Their commitment to maintaining the gold standard would be the linchpin that could sway the fortunes of such currency.

    Nevertheless, the birth of a gold-backed BRICS currency would underscore a seismic shift in geopolitical power, signaling a deviation from the existing dollar and euro hegemony. Such a splintering of the international monetary order could result in an even more unstable geopolitical environment.

    While the dollar’s predominance may ruffle feathers, the alternatives on the horizon are hardly formidable. The BRICS nations, while economically and geopolitically significant, are still far from establishing a viable competitor to the US dollar. A global economic shift of this magnitude requires more than wishful thinking. It demands a credible, reliable, and universally acceptable alternative, which, for the time being seems non-existent.

    For that action to materialize, we must not look to the east but towards the digital frontier. It is in the world of cryptocurrencies that we may find the true contender to the U.S. reserve currency. A well-designed, decentralized cryptocurrency offers features that no single nation-backed currency can boast. It is impervious to political manipulation, can be transferred instantly across borders, and is accessible to anyone with an internet connection.

    A decentralized cryptocurrency also addresses the BRICS nation’s concern of shielding their economies from sanctions and potential economic default. Without the influence of any single nation or political entity, a cryptocurrency operates on its own terms, dictated by cryptographic algorithms rather than the whims of political leaders and financial institutions.

    However, this utopian digital landscape is not without its pitfalls. Issues surrounding volatility, security, and regulatory compliance must be addressed for a cryptocurrency to truly challenge the U.S. dollar’s dominance. In the future it may not be the dollar, the yuan, or the rouble on the global financial stage, but a cryptocurrency such as Bitcoin, Ethereum, or some yet-to-be-conceived cryptocurrency that takes on the mantle.

    In this unfolding narrative, the real shift in global economic order may come not from the vaults of national treasuries, but from algorithms humming in decentralized data centers around the globe. Unlike a potential BRICS currency, the rise of a decentralized cryptocurrency is not contingent on any single country’s economic heft. Instead, it is shaped by the collective action of millions of individuals and institutions worldwide – truly a currency of the people, by the people, and for the people.

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